Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,397 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread.
Miami (OH) @ Kentucky
There’s hype around Brett Gabbert, and there’s a little bit of doubt around Kentucky, and the former makes sense but I’m not sure I track the latter. Is it that Kentucky didn’t blow out its early-season opponents last year? Because by the time they got to LSU, they won by three scores.
We like the Wildcats in a romp.
Pick: Kentucky -15 (-110). Low confidence.
Notre Dame @ Ohio State
Both Notre Dame’s offense and Ohio State’s defense are in a place of “believe it when you see it.” But. There’s more upside with the Notre Dame offense, thanks to the offensive line, and if C.J. Stroud is as good as he’s expected to be, the Buckeyes should make the Irish defense really work tonight. Look for some barns to get burned.
Pick: Over 59 (-110). Low confidence.
