Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,260 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.2% across 1,695 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, today’s MLB futures, and a good bit of college football. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 99–76–5, we’re up 14.35 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –110). Today, we try again for number 100.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 106.84 units, or 14.2%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 19–19–1, and 19–17–1 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 1.68 units, and down 4%. That isn’t great, but we went 7–1 last week and are off to a 2–0–1 start this week.
Washington @ Atlanta
The value is not great here, but we do think Spencer Strider and the Braves will win this game, and we just want win number 100 at this point. We’ve decided we won’t be continuing the MLB moneylines into October—it’ll just be the futures—so we’d really like to win today or tomorrow.
Pick: Atlanta to win –342. Low confidence. (Adon and Strider must start.)
NLCS
We’re continuing our Dodgers investment with the newfound value there, putting twelve units down here. This pushes the Braves into unprofitable territory for us, but that’s part of what’s creating the value—the Braves have a small pitching issue, and while Max Fried should be good to go by the NLDS, Atlanta will have a tough setup for Games 3 and 4, a problem which will compound itself in the NLCS. Also, we built that Braves value in part so we had the leverage to hedge if we had to. We don’t have to hedge just yet, but this has some of the same effect.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +225. Medium confidence. x6
World Series
More Dodgers here, with some on the valuable Phillies as well as we keep them a profitable scenario. With these NL teams, it’s looking like we’re going to have high upside on the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Brewers, low upside on the Phillies, and low downside on the Dodgers and Braves as the postseason starts. That sounds backwards, but what it means is that we’re going to benefit in a big way if anything goes wrong, and we’ll probably have the leverage to lock in a profit if the risk of nothing going wrong gets too big.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +475. Medium confidence. x2
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1300. Medium confidence.
Florida @ Kentucky
Florida has a great win under their belt over Tennessee, but their offense has struggled so often, whereas Kentucky hasn’t looked overpowering but has also mostly done what we would ask a team of their caliber to do. We aren’t sure if Kentucky or Florida is the better team, and that tells us to take the guys playing at home.
Pick: Kentucky –1 (–110). Low confidence.
South Alabama @ James Madison
I still don’t understand the infatuation some have with South Alabama. They just lost to Central Michigan, Tulane stomped them, and their signature win came over a program in freefall. James Madison has made things more interesting than they should’ve at times, but they’ve played beneath themselves if anything. Give us the Dukes.
Pick: James Madison –2 (–110). Low confidence.
Buffalo @ Akron
I think what’s happening here is that Buffalo’s getting a little too much hate for starting 0–4 while Akron’s getting a little too much credit for taking Indiana to those four overtimes. That’s an accomplishment for Akron, but it doesn’t mean this program has completely turned the corner just yet.
Pick: Buffalo +3 (–115). Low confidence.
Miami (OH) @ Kent State
Kent State struggles to score, but this is a big spread against a team who knows it struggles to score and knows its best bet at hanging with these guys is to slow things down. We aren’t sold on the RedHawks just yet.
Pick: Kent State +14.5 (–110). Low confidence.
New Mexico @ Wyoming
Wyoming isn’t getting enough credit. Two of their three wins were impressive, their only loss came to Texas, and this New Mexico team is 2–2 but has only beaten UMass among FBS competition. Wyoming should roll.
Pick: Wyoming –14 (–108). Low confidence.
East Carolina @ Rice
East Carolina is down. We can agree on that. Rice is up. We can agree on that as well. Where that leaves these two relative to one another is the matter for debate. We aren’t sold on Rice just yet, and it’s not because of last week.
Pick: East Carolina +3 (–105). Low confidence.
San Diego State @ Air Force
Service academies are hard to put a number on, and so was San Diego State for a while last decade, but both those trends have faded with these teams as they’ve moved towards convention. Air Force is one of the three best teams in the Group of Five, and they’ve yet to show us otherwise. We don’t think that exposure happens tonight.
Pick: Air Force –10.5 (–107). Low confidence.
Nevada @ Fresno State
Nevada’s played a little better these last two weeks, but they’re still the team Idaho beat 33–6. That is not a surprising result, in hindsight. Idaho isn’t bad, but Fresno State is better.
Pick: Fresno State –24.5 (–111). Low confidence.
