Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 563 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our about page.
Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s offense grabbed attention last week, running at will over a probably respectable Michigan defense. But the defense’s numbers are even more impressive so far.
The Wisconsin defense leads the country in yards per play, yards per rush attempt, and yards per pass attempt. Yes, those numbers have come against offenses rated by SP+ as the 72nd, 120th, and 122nd-best of the 130 FBS teams, but Northwestern’s offense is rated even worse, at 126th. The question today might not be how much Northwestern will score, but whether they’ll score at all.
Pick: Wisconsin -23.5 (-110). Low confidence.
New Mexico @ Liberty
The state of FBS football in New Mexico is not good. New Mexico State can’t find a conference to take it, and currently rates out as the fifth worst FBS team in the nation by SP+. Up in the northern half of the state, their rival Lobos aren’t much better, edging them by three in a thriller last weekend, which may have been exciting but doesn’t speak highly of their ability.
New Mexico might be 2-1, but their defense is bad, 120th in the country by yards per play despite facing NMSU and Sam Houston State in two of their first three games. Liberty isn’t great (it’s in the 80’s in the SP+ rankings for both offense and defense, and sits at 94th overall), but it should still have no problem scoring against the visitors.
Pick: Liberty -7.5 (-105). Low confidence.
MLB
Seattle @ Oakland
The Mariners can say this for their season: it’s been interesting. Between a surprising strong start to the season, a barrage of home runs, and the goodbye the other night to Félix Hernández, there have been plenty of storylines for the last-place team. In one of the quieter ones, tonight their most valuable player by fWAR makes his final start of the year.
Marco Gonzales has been mentioned here before, but his 4.09 ERA and 4.13 FIP bear mentioning again. He hasn’t had many outstanding performances—he hasn’t hit double-digit strikeouts in a game this year, and he has no complete games—but he’s been fairly consistent in his solid performance. He’s only walked more than three batters once. He’s accumulated 18 quality starts out of his 33 total outings. For whatever wins and losses are worth, he’s 16-12.
Signed for just one million dollars next year, and slated to hit arbitration after that (he got a raise from Seattle in exchange for dropping a case that the Cardinals had manipulated his service time back when he was with them—the Cardinals’ action would have hurt the Mariners’ budget as his current employer), Gonzales has become a valuable piece in the Mariners’ rebuild. Whether he can sustain it remains to be seen, but for two straight years now, he’s posted more than 3.0 fWAR. He’ll likely hit 200 innings tonight. From all appearances, the lefty is here to stay.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
