Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,061 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Just college football today as we drift into wait-and-see mode with our MLB futures portfolio—specifically, the AL Central.
Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas’s offense has some big expectations this year, and deservedly so. They’ll get a good chance to show off against a defense that SP+ rates as only ten points better than that of UTEP, against whom the Longhorns hung an easy 59 in Austin.
Pick: Texas -18 (-110). Low confidence.
Duke @ Virginia
It’s UVA’s season opener, and that seems to be holding this spread back a bit. A big bit. Eight points. Is one week of experience worth that much? It’s doubtful.
Pick: Virginia -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas @ Baylor
With Baylor, the season-opener phenomenon is going on as well, as is probably some concern that the team might not be at full strength following Covid issues. Again, the caution is likely overdone.
Pick: Baylor -17.5 (-110). Low confidence.
