Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,189 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,643 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, two MLB futures, and a little college football. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 96–72–5, we’re up 15.05 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –110). It’s been a tough few weeks, but we continue to search for our end-of-season rally to cross the finish line strong.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 105.42 units, or 14.1%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 12–18, and 12–16 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 7.22 units, and down 24%. Not going great, but we’re 2–0 so far on Week 4.
Anaheim @ Minnesota
A team with no seeding to play for and a ton of injuries playing a day game after clinching the division last night? Give us these long odds.
Pick: Anaheim to win +180. Low confidence. (Rosenberg and Gray must start.)
AL East
There’s a teensy bit of value here today, and that allows us to close our AL East gap between the Orioles and the Rays by about half a unit by doubling up. It isn’t much, but the Rays are very unlikely to win this division.
Pick: Baltimore to win –650. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baltimore to win –650. Medium confidence.
SMU @ TCU
The way Colorado Logic has manifested in the narratives should be expected to be ridiculous, but in markets, this seems like the wrong direction. TCU played a hyper-athletic team with little idea of what to prepare for schematically, made some rough mistakes, and still only lost by three. SMU, meanwhile, has a best accomplishment so far of keeping Oklahoma within 16 points. That’s a lot of points.
Pick: TCU –7 (–110). Low confidence.
Boston College @ Louisville
Don’t make too much of Boston College’s performance last weekend. That was more unusual than what they did against NIU. Louisville’s a little maddening, but on the whole they’ve been a solid team.
Pick: Louisville –14 (–105). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Oregon
Colorado’s defense, already bad, is without Travis Hunter today, and for as outlandish as the Colorado hype has been at times, Travis Hunter is legitimately one of the best players in the country. Colorado’s offense, meanwhile, has scored pretty reliably, even with last week’s issues. We don’t have enough confidence in Oregon’s defense to keep the Buffs below 24, and we expect Oregon to push 50 without much problem.
Pick: Over 70 (–105). Low confidence.
UCLA @ Utah
This line has swung back aggressively since inflating to six, and we’re going to grab it where it opened. Even if Cam Rising’s out, that shouldn’t make Utah worse than they’ve been so far, and for as dicey as it was in Waco, Utah hasn’t been a bad team so far. They’ve played good football. We like them to get a big conference win, and to do it by more than a field goal.
Pick: Utah –3.5 (+100). Low confidence.
James Madison @ Utah State
Something’s been off with Utah State’s lines at least two weeks in a row now, and I wonder if they’re getting a little credit for not getting beaten worse by Iowa. Whatever the case, unless JMU really struggles at elevation, they should be able to win by a touchdown against these guys.
Pick: James Madison –4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Cal @ Washington
Washington hasn’t exactly taken its foot off the gas, and while Cal’s defense is respectable, Cal as a whole is just not good enough to hang with the Huskies. We’re worried about the injury to the starting center, but we aren’t worried at all about complacency, with Arizona next weekend and then a week idle in preparation for Oregon.
Pick: Washington –20 (–110). Low confidence.
