Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 541 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Michigan @ Wisconsin
The biggest question here is whether Michigan’s offense can score enough to hang with the Badgers. Wisconsin has yet to allow a point this year, and while those performances have come against the 109th and 114th-ranked offenses in the country (by SP+), Michigan’s only at 74th.
Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (-105). Low confidence.
MLB
Philadelphia @ Cleveland
The Phillies might be done in this season, which brings the focus to next year. It’ll be interesting to see if they pursue Gerrit Cole. They’ve shown they’re willing to spend money, and starting pitching is an area of clear need. On the other end of things, picking up the 2020 option of today’s starter, Jason Vargas, would also help fill out a rotation. He’s no Gerrit Cole, but he’s adequate (4.71 FIP this year), and given some of what they’ve had to trot out this year (Drew Smyly), there’s likely room for Vargas as well as an acquisition.
Pick: Philadelphia to win (+144). Low confidence.
Texas @ Oakland
The A’s need starting pitching. Their bullpen’s great. But starting pitching has been suspect. Which is why Sean Manaea’s dominant return (0.50 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 18.0 IP over three starts) bodes so well for their October.
Pick: Under 9 (-110). Low confidence.
