Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,035 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
We’ve got both college football and MLB picks today, as well as some MLB futures. For the futures, the lines come from Bovada as usual due to the difficulty of finding a current Vegas Consensus.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Troy @ Middle Tennessee State
It’s Troy’s season opener, and it’s possible that’s the reason for this discount. It’s possible that’s fair. It’s equally possible the market has hedged and not fully accounted for MTSU’s woeful season opener against Army. Troy’s no Army, but they’re about 13 points better than MTSU, all else equal. That’s a lot, even on the road.
Pick: Troy -2.5 (-115). Low confidence.
UCF @ Georgia Tech
UCF scores a lot of points. It also doesn’t usually face many great defenses. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t great, but it’s better than anything the AAC’s going to offer this year, with the possible exception of Cincinnati. Expect it to give Dillon Gabriel at least some trouble.
Pick: Under 63 (-110). Low confidence.
NC State @ Wake Forest
NC State, like Troy, is opening its season this week, and it’s possible there’ll be some rust. What’s more likely going on with this line—which has recently flipped to favoring Wake Forest—is some doubt on the Wolfpack following a disastrous season last fall. That disaster was brought about in part by a high number of injuries, and even if it was legitimate, it was a year ago now. Things change in a year.
Wake Forest isn’t a pushover, but NC State should still be expected to be the better team.
Pick: NC State +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
MLB
Atlanta @ New York (NL)
Atlanta has some bad starting pitching. Ian Anderson doesn’t fall into that category, but it’s hard to expect him to maintain his 1.64 ERA going forward. Granted, the wind’s blowing in tonight in Queens, but that suppresses all bats, which ends up helping this.
Pick: New York (NL) +1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
Futures
Atlanta has some good starting pitching. Ian Anderson doesn’t necessarily fall into that category, but he has managed a 2.97 FIP, so at the very least, he’s providing some hope. With Max Fried a legitimate ace and Cole Hamels’s underlying metrics looking ok in his season debut, this rotation might be decent enough to turn in some good outings, especially against—as we’ve been saying—the non-Dodgers/Padres side of the National League bracket.
Over in the American League, Cleveland continues to be undervalued coming off their losing streak. They’re within two of the Twins for second place in the division, they get the Pirates next weekend, and they get four more cracks at the White Sox between then. No, you shouldn’t bet on them to win the AL Central, but it’s not impossible that they’ll end up on top over there, and even if they pass the Twins and draw the Yankees in the Wild Card Series, Shane Bieber’s better than Gerrit Cole, giving them a solid chance, even as an underdog.
Pick: Atlanta to win World Series +1400. Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland to win ALCS +1200. Low confidence.
