Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,533 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A few baseball ones at the end, including a future, the odds for which come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Cincinnati @ Indiana
There’s reason to be skeptical about how good Iowa is, given how much the timing and returns of turnovers have contributed to the Hawkeyes’ success. This was especially a big part of the game with Indiana.
At the same time, though, there’s reason to be skeptical of the Hoosiers’ entire last season. Their crowning achievements were a close win and a close loss in which their combined postgame win expectancies summed to something like 25%, if that.
Cincinnati might not be what their ranking indicates. But Indiana’s probably worse than their reputation.
Pick: Cincinnati -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Northern Illinois @ Michigan
This is a blowout line, which is always tricky, but this Michigan offense has been more turbocharged through the first two weeks than we usually see in Ann Arbor, and NIU just allowed Wyoming to score 50 in DeKalb.
Pick: Michigan -27.5 (-110). Low confidence.
SMU @ Louisiana Tech
There’s a narrative here that rain might slow down SMU. The problem with that is that is isn’t supposed to be especially windy, there isn’t a huge probability of rain, and the playing surface in Ruston is FieldTurf.
Pick: SMU -11 (-110). Low confidence.
Fresno State @ UCLA
Fresno State gave Oregon trouble in a game in which Oregon was rather obviously looking ahead. Are the Bulldogs solid? Yes, very likely so. But UCLA has looked consistently competent so far, and that’s probably all they need to do to cover tonight.
Pick: UCLA -11 (-110). Low confidence.
Now, the baseball (with the future last):
Arizona @ Houston
Lance McCullers Jr. is quietly mounting a 3.12-ERA season, with a FIP and xERA that aren’t far off. With the Astros’ eyes on clinching in the next week or two, don’t expect them to mess around tonight.
Pick: Houston -1.5 (-145). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Milwaukee
Corbin Burnes has somehow been notably better than his 2.66-FIP FanGraphs projection. More than a run better. Obscene.
Pick: Milwaukee -1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
NL West
There’s positive value here, albeit quite low positive value. Shoring up our floor on the division half of the portfolio without sacrificing much profit probability.
Pick: San Francisco to win -150. Medium confidence.
