Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,418 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% across 773 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Ohio @ Iowa State
After watching this team for two weeks, I’m still not sure about the Cyclone defense. The offense has looked great. There were mistakes against Iowa, but those are going to happen in that game (as much as I wish they wouldn’t), and Iowa’s defense is stout. I like ISU to score a lot today, and I think they let the Bobcats do a bit themselves.
Pick: Over 48 (-110). Low confidence.
North Dakota State @ Arizona
Is North Dakota State a lot better than a mediocre-to-bad Pac-12 school? I certainly think so. Guess we’ll find out.
Pick: North Dakota State -2 (-115). Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series at Bristol
In Chase Briscoe’s two full seasons at the Xfinity level, he raced four times at Bristol, and only once did he finish worse than second, a fourth-place spot in 2019. The guy’s got plenty to race for, the Fords have been a lot better lately than early in the year, Briscoe’s own performance an exception, and I’m just getting the idea the market’s lulled to sleep a little on this guy right now. We’ll take a shot on him.
Pick: Chase Briscoe to win +1800. Low confidence.
