Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,018 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Another future today, and the line from that will come from Bovada rather than a Vegas Consensus. Before that, though…
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
The Pirates and Royals are rebuilding. We know this. We’ve known this. But so far, at least, that hasn’t meant giving their best players much time off. We’ll see if this continues, but for now, it’s fair to treat each as their normal selves, at least for over/under purposes.
Pick: Over 9 (-115). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Milwaukee
The Cubs offense is struggling. Brett Anderson isn’t bad. Kyle Hendricks is good.
The recipe’s there for another low-scoring game tonight, and it’s possible that’s what’ll play out. It’s more likely, though, that these teams land closer to their expected performance level.
Pick: Over 9 (-105). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Both Dakota Hudson and Tejay Antone are greatly outperforming their FIP’s this year. As usual, it’s doubtful that will last. This is a low total with the wind lightly blowing out in St. Louis.
Pick: Over 8 (-120). Low confidence.
Future
Cleveland is skidding this week, dropping three of four to the Royals before losing to the Twins last night.
Still, they’re pretty much assured of a playoff spot, and even if they do wind up as the seven (or eight) seed, they’ve got Shane Bieber starting Game 1 of the Wild Card Series in an environment in which home field advantage is lessened.
There’s some value here, and with our portfolio not very invested in Cleveland’s World Series hopes (have one unit on them at +2500, but have 23 units down on World Series futures overall), it helps us diversify a little at the best-case end.
Pick: Cleveland to win ALCS +1000. Low confidence.
