Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,524 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
College football first, then a pair of MLB picks at the end:
Toledo @ Notre Dame
It’s hard to know what happened last week for Notre Dame. Did their defensive approach get too conservative too quickly? Did they tire in the Tallahassee heat? Was there something supernatural happening associated with McKenzie Milton?
Overall, Notre Dame didn’t look that different from expectations. Jack Coan looked better than expected (though he was bailed out by a dropped interception early). The defense looked good, then mediocre, coming out worse than expected on the whole. It wasn’t a hugely revelatory night.
With our college football picks, we trust Bill Connelly’s SP+. It’s the best system we’ve found. It likes Toledo, and therefore so do we, but to offer one more thing for your consideration: Florida State has lost six or more games each of the last four seasons.
Pick: Toledo +17 (-115). Low confidence.
Texas State @ Florida International
My best guess as to what’s happening here is that people are seeing Texas State’s result last week against Baylor (a nine point loss) and giving the Bobcats a lot of credit.
A few things about that game:
It was in San Marcos, not Waco.
Texas State was outgained 386-235.
Texas State threw three interceptions.
Penalties helped the cause a lot, but I’m not under the impression that drawing penalties is all that sustainable of an approach. FIU’s a better team, playing at home.
Pick: FIU -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Stanford @ USC
Six years ago, Stanford had what could have been a playoff season derailed out of the gate by a 16-6 loss to Northwestern in what was a 9:00 AM kickoff on the old body clock. It was ugly, Stanford was fine, it mattered but it wasn’t indicative of how good or bad a team the Cardinal were.
This doesn’t really apply this year.
Yes, the 9:00 AM kickoff happened again in last week’s loss to a middling Power Five team wearing purple. But Stanford just isn’t as good as that Stanford team was. Not on paper. Probably not on the field. The Northwestern result that year was surprising. This Kansas State one was not.
Could Stanford keep it close? Certainly. This was a great rivalry for a few years there. But right now, one program out of these two is a contender in the Pac-12, and that’s Southern Cal.
Pick: USC -17 (-115). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Houston
José Suarez is coming off a complete game, eight-strikeout, zero-walk effort against the Rangers. He only threw 100 pitches. This is a bit concerning for Houston.
At the same time, though, it was just one start. The outing before that, Suárez didn’t make it out of the fourth inning against the Padres.
Suárez is outperforming expectations. But even with that factored in, the Astros are relatively safe tonight, with this a somewhat favorable line.
Pick: Houston -1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
Miami @ Atlanta
Charlie Morton keeps rocking, Atlanta keeps winning, and they might not be the best team in the NL, but they aren’t far off the second-best on paper, with the best currently stuck two and a half games back of avoiding the wild card game.
Things are good at whatever they’re calling that ballpark these days.
Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
