Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,402 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is often used in making college football picks against the spread. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
Kenny Pickett is no longer at Pitt, and while Kedon Slovis was extremely efficient through the air against West Virginia, it was only West Virginia. Tennessee’s no defensive juggernaut, but they’re a much better team than the Mountaineers, and the Mountaineers ran all over the Panthers on the other side of the ball. We like the Vols on the road.
Pick: Tennessee -6 (-110). Low confidence.
Mississippi State @ Arizona
We also like the Bulldogs on the road. Mississippi State’s easy to overlook, playing in the SEC West, but they’re a solid program, and Arizona is not. It’ll take a lot of mistakes on the visitors’ part tonight for this to be close.
Pick: Mississippi State -11 (-105). Low confidence.
