Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,603 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.0% isn’t positive, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have one future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have some college football, which we’ll list after all the baseball. First, that baseball:
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
When things are going well for Milwaukee, it’s harder to score than it is for Atlanta to score when things are going well for Atlanta.
Pick: Parlay – Milwaukee to win, under 7.5 (+253). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
Similarly, the Giants’ best shot to win this is a game where Gausman can get the bullpen a clean sheet or just one or two runs, and the bullpen holds it from there.
Pick: Parlay – San Francisco to win, under 7.5 (+274). Low confidence.
Now, the future:
NLCS
The Brewers are now narrowly the NL favorites, at least per FanGraphs. Adrian Houser reminded us yesterday why Devin Williams’s absence (and now the absence of Brent Suter, as well) might not be the most terrible problem.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +225. Medium confidence.
Now, the football:
Wake Forest @ Syracuse
Wake Forest should keep winning. But I’m not sure momentum alone can shift this game as much as the perception of it seems to have shifted this line.
Pick: Syracuse +6 (-110). Low confidence.
Wisconsin @ Illinois
Wisconsin might be sloppy, and Illinois’s capitalized off of slop before, but the Badgers aren’t this bad.
Pick: Wisconsin -12 (-110). Low confidence.
Penn State @ Iowa
It’d be naïve to think Iowa won’t drag Penn State down into the swamp, but can Penn State win in a swamp? Can Penn State force Iowa’s offense to make plays? It can, and more likely than not, it will.
Pick: Penn State +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Buffalo @ Kent State
Staying in the Rust Belt, we’ve got a rematch of last year’s 111-point gun show. Kent State’s love in the market might be part of the Iowa industrial complex, but it’s hard to know, and the Flashes lost that game by 23 points in the end. Regardless, this is closer to a tossup than it is to where the line’s at.
Pick: Buffalo +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
