Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,321 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 1,739 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
MLB futures, college football. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 111.13 units, or 14.8%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 26–24–1, and 25–22–1 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 0.31 units and down 0.6%. That isn’t great, but we’ve been much better the last two weeks, so if you believe in trends, they’re positive. Trying to get into profitability today, but putting a lot on the table, so risk is high if our picks are correlated (and we believe they are).
Division Series: Baltimore vs. Texas
The value question here is hard to answer. In the regular season, we use FanGraphs’s core model, Depth Charts. In the postseason, though, we crosscheck against ZiPS’s probabilities for individual series. Usually, they’re aligned and any differences are a matter of degree. This year, though, the pair is in disagreement on where the value lies with three of the four Division Series. This is one of them.
With the others in doubt, we’re laying off (we’re also laying off on the Diamondbacks, because we have so much upside on them already and so much Dodgers downside). With this one, though, we’re addressing the doomsday scenarios, which mostly involve the Rangers. We’re raising our portfolio’s floor.
So. This isn’t a pure hedge, but it’s something like it. In the interests of full disclosure.
Pick: Texas to win +109. Medium confidence. x3
ALCS
This is one where the value is clearly positive, and it also helps some isolated doomsday scenarios. (We’re in a boat where if one of the three of the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Twins wins their Division Series, we’re in good shape, but otherwise we carry some risk.) We’ll take that. For what it’s worth, it also passes the gut check.
Pick: Houston to win +185. Medium confidence.
World Series
The same is true here, so rather than repeat ourselves, one note: Today is going to drive the biggest shift in Atlanta’s World Series probability in months. There has been much to do, but mostly, the Braves have been waiting, having effectively wrapped up the top seed in the NL long ago. Today, the leverage games begin.
Pick: Atlanta to win +310. Medium confidence.
Boston College @ Army
Boston College showed life against Florida State, but besides that, it’s been a bad year. This feels like a line informed by habit and shaped heavily by the fact Boston College is coming off a win. That win came over Virginia, though. Virginia is 0–5 and hasn’t exactly been playing the San Francisco 49ers.
Pick: Army –2.5 (–114). Low confidence.
Texas vs. Oklahoma
We are terrified of the spread here, because we’re terrified of overtime, but we do think this game is closer to 50/50 than the narrative and the markets suggest. If you got this earlier in the week, congratulations. We’ll still take it now.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +175. Low confidence.
Alabama @ Texas A&M
This line dropped to one point for a few days, but we’ll still take it here. We talked about this at length yesterday, but we aren’t sold on Alabama not being a top-five team, and we aren’t sold on Texas A&M being anything more than one of those squads that rolls in and out of the top 25.
Pick: Alabama –2.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Purdue @ Iowa
The thing about Cade McNamara’s injury is…can it make Iowa’s offense worse? It can, it always can, but I do think there’s something to the idea that it was so bad already. What that really probably means is that McNamara wasn’t that much better than Deacon Hill.
Pick: Iowa –2.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Syracuse @ North Carolina
Here’s the thing about Syracuse’s loss to Clemson: If Clemson had made that field goal against Florida State, no one would have batted an eye at the margin. UNC does appear to be solid, but we aren’t convinced Syracuse isn’t solid enough themselves.
Pick: Syracuse +9.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Texas State @ Louisiana
Texas State is a riot, but ULL is about as good as they are, and probably a little better. This line is putting a lot of faith in Texas State to have taken more strides than we would guess they actually have.
Pick: Louisiana –1.5 (–110). Low confidence.
USF @ UAB
UAB hasn’t impressed as much as USF (USF’s had a thrill of a last three weeks), and this isn’t that the Blazers are good, but it’s another where the narrative’s probably out over its skis and markets are going with it. I think sometimes bettors extrapolate too much and assume too strongly that trends will continue.
Pick: UAB +3.5 (–120). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona State
If this game was played four weeks ago, Colorado would have been favored by twenty. Obviously, that would have been wrong, but the Buffs should still be a leg up on a beat up, beat down Arizona State team.
Pick: Colorado –3.5 (–103). Low confidence.
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss
I think Southern Miss might be really, really bad.
Pick: Old Dominion +3 (–115). Low confidence.
Colorado State @ Utah State
Markets are back to underestimating Colorado, but they’re still giving Colorado State a lot of credit for taking that game to double overtime. That doesn’t really add up. We’re going to try to hit both sides on it.
Pick: Utah State +3 (–110). Low confidence.
Fresno State @ Wyoming
I would not want to play this Wyoming team, especially on the road, but sometimes you have to trust the numbers and it’s hard to not see this as one where Fresno State is on a different plane. Wyoming is reliably competitive, but Fresno State is actively good.
Pick: Fresno State –6 (–110). Low confidence.
Oregon State @ Cal
Finally: You should probably try to see if there’s an important injury here that I’ve missed. If there isn’t, I don’t know what’s going on with this line. Cal’s not bad, but they’re not bad in the way where they might make a bowl. Oregon State’s good in the way where they’re a Pac-12 sleeper again after everyone turned the lights off on ‘em.
Pick: Oregon State –7 (–118). Low confidence.
