Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,919 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +1% across 2,399 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets are MLB futures and single-game college football.
The context on each market:
MLB futures – In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We placed two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season, as usual, then pivoted to placing a more variable number throughout the playoffs, as usual. We’re currently big fans of the Tigers, Padres, and Mets, and we do not want the Dodgers to win it all.
Single-game college football bets – Our history here is mediocre, and we’re off to a really bad start this season, with an 11–16 record on the young year. We’re down 6.10 units heading into today. We did go 4–1 last week, but we lost each of the last two nights.
World Series
We’re seeing value on the Royals, Phillies, Guardians, and Padres in various markets based on FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds. The Padres have a notably lower NLDS probability in the ZiPS, which considers starting pitching matchups, than in those Playoff Odds, which don’t. So, while we probably wouldn’t have put anything on the Padres anyway, given their upside is already huge for us and the Dodgers are our nightmare scenario, they’re off the list.
Among the other three, it’s about keeping teams as profitable scenarios or getting them closer to profitability. Today, that means eight units on the Phillies and two on the Guards. Here’s the new high-level outlook, only considering series in which the listed team can play:
| Team | Remaining Upside/Downside |
| Tigers | 1118 |
| Padres | 621 |
| Mets | 260 |
| Royals | 34 |
| Guardians | 22 |
| Yankees | -32 |
| Phillies | -70 |
| Dodgers | -318 |
Pick: Philadelphia to win +450. Medium confidence. x4
Pick: Cleveland to win +1200. Medium confidence.
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Watching Purdue play Notre Dame between watching Notre Dame play NIU and Miami–Ohio, we were struck by how slow and weak Purdue looked. Last week, we realized this means we should probably bet against them. We think they’re the worst Power Four team, and we don’t think markets have caught up.
They fired their offensive coordinator this week, which briefly drove this line up to 15 (or maybe even higher), and Wisconsin will be without leader rusher Chez Mellusi, which is maybe what drove it back down here? That last part doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but all the more reason to take the Badgers here.
Pick: Wisconsin –11 (–110). Low confidence.
Wake Forest @ NC State
We’re still not sure NC State is actively bad, and we hold some thoughts that Dave Doeren might figure things out as the year goes on. We’re taking a lot of favorites this week, and we don’t love that, but it’s favorites that Movelor likes, and we think there’s some overthinking going on in the market.
Pick: NC State –3.5 (–112). Low confidence.
Iowa @ Ohio State
We were interested in all three of this one, Georgia, and Alabama, but it was this one we liked the most. Ohio State has seemed more interested in and more focused on eviscerating opponents.
Pick: Ohio State –18 (–110). Low confidence.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
This is a little like NC State, but with a much better team. Oklahoma State is hard to pin down, but they tend to find a way to be competitive in the Big 12. They drew a brutal start to conference play schedule-wise, but we think they figure it out today and at least win by this field goal.
Pick: Oklahoma State –3 (+100). Low confidence.
Nevada @ San Jose State
Finally, out west, we think people haven’t noticed San Jose State yet. We’ve said this earlier in the year too, but it still holds water. The Spartans might be a Mountain West contender, or whatever passes for one behind Boise State.
Pick: San Jose State –7 (–103). Low confidence.
