Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 569 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Auburn @ Florida
Between these two, Auburn’s built the better résumé so far. But that doesn’t get them any extra points today. Yes, the Tigers are more proven, but overall, the teams look remarkably comparable in quality, just 0.2 points apart in SP+.
There’s noise around the Florida quarterback situation, with Kyle Trask in for an injured Feleipe Franks. But for all the noise, it’s hard to tell which quarterback is better, and how much better either is. Trask moved the ball effectively against Tennessee despite the two turnovers, and while Tennessee isn’t a good team, they’ve got a respectable defense.
Pick: Florida +2.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Georgia @ Tennessee
About that respectable Tennessee defense: It’s unclear how good they really are, and Georgia has a better offense than Florida. But it only ranks seven spots lower in SP+ than that of Notre Dame, which gave Georgia some problems. Better still for the Vols, they’ve performed better, in a relative sense, against the run than against the pass, matching them up well with the rush-heavy Dawgs.
To cover, Georgia might have to get points from their defense, or at least some great field position. And while that well may happen, it’s hard to bank on it.
Pick: Tennessee +24.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Pitt @ Duke
The disparity between Pitt’s offense (ranked 113th by SP+) and defense (19th) is striking. Also striking is the fact that we may wind up learning Duke’s the second-best team in the ACC when more games have been played. As it stands, they’re about a quarter of a point below Miami in the aggregate ratings our model uses.
Pick: Duke -4 (-110). Low confidence.
