Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,084 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
If you’re in a hurry with MLB futures, look at Houston and Atlanta. Otherwise, wait ‘til Monday when we’ll probably have some before the LDS’s start. Just football today.
Baylor @ West Virginia
West Virginia has performed better than expected. They also lost by 14 to a struggling Oklahoma State team that’s worse, on paper, than Baylor.
Baylor’s not at the level of Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12, but they might be the next closest team, and it’s getting harder to see who else it might be.
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Virginia Tech @ Duke
Duke continues to be oddly overvalued (possibly a reaction to hanging with a sloppy Notre Dame a few weeks back?). Virginia Tech continues to be undervalued.
The Hokies are frequent disappointers, but if expectations get low enough, it’s hard to disappoint. As it stands, this might be the best Virginia Tech team since 2011, or at the latest 2016. Balanced. Decent across the board. Maybe they’ll be looking ahead to UNC, but even so, 13 is a coverable spread for this matchup.
Pick: Virginia Tech -13 (-110). Low confidence.
Virginia @ Clemson
This is a rematch of last year’s ACC Championship game. The ACC is bouncing back a bit this year, and adding Notre Dame for a season helps, but man. Yikes.
Clemson doesn’t seem to have its foot fully on the gas yet, and while a coasting Clemson team can certainly win by 30, it’s unclear if they will. Virginia’s offense should have a hard time doing much of anything, but don’t expect a shutout, and don’t expect Clemson to show too much as they prepare for a visit from Miami.
Pick: Virginia +28.5 (-110). Low confidence.
