Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,737 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling probWorlem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We do have a future today, the odds for which come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We’ll start with that, then hit tonight’s game, then move on to college football. Sound good?
World Series
There’s a little value to be had on Atlanta here, and since that’s our less profitable scenario at the moment, we’ll take it.
Pick: Atlanta to win -180. Medium confidence.
Houston @ Atlanta
The good arms all threw for Atlanta last night, and while that doesn’t make them an underdog this evening, it does put some pressure on the offense to score, especially in the first few innings.
They should pull that off.
Pick: Atlanta to win -110. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Iowa @ Wisconsin
First, the over/under here is 36.5, which is hilarious. What a game.
Anyway, the turnover narrative probably has some validity to it, but not as much as it’s gotten credit for.
Pick: Wisconsin -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Hawaii @ Utah State
Mainland discount? That’s my best guess for what’s going on here. Dae Dae Hunter’s expected to play, and while you shouldn’t put too much stock in a running back, it doesn’t hurt to have him available.
Pick: Hawaii +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Southern Mississippi @ Middle Tennessee State
Southern Miss is bad, yes, but is MTSU much better? They beat Marshall and haven’t done anything else of note. Marshall’s fine, but that’s not enough to make a season.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +13 (-110). Low confidence.
Virginia @ BYU
Virginia can move the ball, Brennan Armstrong should be experienced enough to handle the noise. The Provo elevation’s a question (4,500’), but that should be priced in to some extent given BYU often has that situation at home.
Pick: Virginia +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Washington @ Stanford
Washington, like Wisconsin, sucks. Washington, like Wisconsin, checks all the fundamentals boxes. It’s more an ethos thing, which means it might be a little bit of luck, or it might be something mental, but it hasn’t been mental for long enough to ascribe it too much significance. They’re the better team, and by enough. Just have to do the thing.
Pick: Washington +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
