Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,581 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and you can do things with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Two baseball futures today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Bowling Green @ Kent State
Kent State’s definitely battle-tested, having played Iowa, Texas A&M, and Maryland in three of their first four games, but they’ve yet to really show anything, never losing by fewer than three touchdowns. Beating Minnesota isn’t much, but it’s something for the visitors against this enormous line.
Pick: Bowling Green +16.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Troy @ South Carolina
South Carolina gave Kentucky a game last week, but making much out of that requires taking Kentucky’s 4-0 record for a lot more than it’s worth.
Pick: Troy +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Southern Mississippi @ Rice
The only explanation I can think of here is that there’s some post-Alabama factor that the market thinks will affect Southern Miss? It’d take a big sample size for that to be relevant, and that’s just a hypothetical explanation in the first place.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +1 (-110). Low confidence.
Indiana @ Penn State
Indiana is just not last year’s team. That, or they are, and last year’s team was more flawed than we realized.
Pick: Penn State -12.5 (-110). Low confidence.
ALCS
With the Mariners losing last night, the Red Sox grabbed a game of cushion in the AL Wild Card race, and with the Yankees losing, there’s now a chance the Red Sox will get to play New York at home.
Pick: Boston to win +1100. Low confidence.
World Series
The Astros should probably be AL favorites. Partially because they’re better than the Rays on paper, but partially because they get to play the White Sox in the ALDS instead of probably the Yankees or Red Sox.
Pick: Houston to win +600. Low confidence.
