Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,792 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 1,126 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we may have to wait until Election Day or later.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Great win by the Phillies (for them and for us), but a long way to go. More MLB futures today, plus college football. For MLB unit context: We started the season with 1,040 units available. We’ve so far profited 12.84 units. We have 724.84 units in our bankroll. Before the following picks are placed, we’re in a scenario where we’ll profit by an additional 309.30 units should the Phillies win it all, and lose an additional 52.28 units should the Astros win it all.
World Series (Hedge)
Yesterday, we started an approach where we did the following:
- Measure the gap between the Phillies scenario and the unit gain we need to get back to even all-time on all bets.
- Divide that gap by the number of days remaining in the worst-case scenario: Five, both that day and today.
- Bet the resulting number of units on the Astros as a hedge: 22 units yesterday, 18 units today.
It’s a terrible value play, but if the Astros win tonight, we’ll sure be glad we have it. This pulls Houston that much closer to a non-loss for us in the season-long results, and it preserves a lot of Philadelphia upside. Here’s hoping tomorrow we find ourselves with a 2-0 Phillies lead.
New scenarios? A Phillies title makes us 291.30 units. An Astros title loses us 33.38 units.
Pick: Houston to win +105. Medium confidence. x9
Northwestern @ Iowa
One thing that could extend that gap between the Phillies upside and what we need to be profitable all-time? College football wins. It’s small, but it’d help.
This feels like another one of those Big Ten West meme lines, and specifically an Iowa meme line. 37.5 points is just so few in a college game. Even between Northwestern and Iowa.
Pick: Over 37.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Baylor @ Texas Tech
Baylor seems pretty likely to be a better team than Texas Tech, and while this line acknowledges that, it only acknowledges it by a point or two. It’s definitely been a disappointing season for the Bears, but the ingredients remain there, and Dave Aranda is still a good coach. We respect Texas Tech around here, but Baylor’s better, and by more than a point.
Pick: Baylor +2 (-110). Low confidence.
