Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,579 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.1% across 1,950 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures and today’s college football. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. Using FanGraphs probabilities and including today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 71.86 units, or 9.6%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 46–41–2. We’re up 1.57 units and up 2%.
World Series (Hedge)
We were feeling so good about all our Diamondbacks upside…
We still are far from out on the D-Backs. We like them to win one of these next two and make this a series. But we have to cover our bases, and we’re in a position to do that. This eliminates one quarter of our Rangers liability, with a quarter being the number chosen because the soonest they could clinch is three days from today (so if today is Day 1, Game 4 is Day 4).
Pick: Texas to win –305. Medium confidence. x25
UMass @ Army
Army is playing worse these days. But UMass is so bad.
Pick: Army –10 (–110). Low confidence.
Oklahoma @ Kansas
We respect Kansas, but we respect Kansas a lot more when it’s Jalon Daniels under center.
Pick: Oklahoma –7 (–115). Low confidence.
Virginia @ Miami (FL)
Even if Tyler Van Dyke does play, we remain unconvinced that Miami’s any good. Virginia doesn’t have to do what it did last week to keep this within two possessions.
Pick: Virginia +18.5 (–108). Low confidence.
Tennessee @ Kentucky
Maybe Tennessee’s mediocre, but are we sure Kentucky isn’t? Give us the Vols to continue their recent string of dominance.
Pick: Tennessee –4 (–104). Low confidence.
Troy @ Texas State
Texas State’s season is a fun story and a great step forward, and GJ Kinne appears to be the real deal. Troy’s just a lot better right now. They’re the best team in the Sun Belt once you get past JMU.
Pick: Troy –6.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Colorado @ UCLA
Remember Colorado?
UCLA doesn’t have the same firepower they had last year, but they’re still very much a solid team, and Colorado isn’t surprising anyone anymore. Besides themselves, that is.
Pick: UCLA –14.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State
I don’t know how Oklahoma State did it, but they seem to have turned things around to the point where they’re now in the running to be the third or fourth-best team in the Big 12. Cincinnati isn’t there right now, and they haven’t been there all year. It’d be a big surprise if they stepped up tonight in Stillwater.
Pick: Oklahoma State –7.5 (–105). Low confidence.
New Mexico @ Nevada
This is a weird, weird game, but the pick boils down to the idea that New Mexico is past the point of falling off the plateau at the bottom of the FBS rankings. One of the worst. I’m not sure you can say that about Nevada to the same extent.
Pick: Nevada –1 (+100). Low confidence.
