Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,137 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 2%’s into a whole lot more than 2% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Some baseball, some football. The baseball first.
Tampa Bay vs. Los Angeles
Both teams are through their rotations and into bullpen mode, and while this should favor the Rays, Julio Urías is more likely to exit early than Ryan Yarbrough, based on postseason trends so far.
With that said, though, the Rays aren’t going to give Yarbrough much of a leash, and while Urías has been dominant so far in the playoffs, it’s only been 16 innings.
This isn’t a great line, but of all the baseball picks out there tonight, it’s the best we see. Urías is likely a bit overvalued. That’s the difference.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Penn State @ Indiana
Yes, Indiana’s returning a lot of starters from an eight-win team. But that team’s victories came against solely teams with losing records, and while Penn State had a tendency to play teams closer than expected, including Indiana, that was sporadic enough to be labeled fluky in hindsight. Indiana might be one of the thirty best teams in the country. Penn State’s probably one of the five best.
Pick: Penn State -6.5 (-105). Low confidence.
West Virginia @ Texas Tech
West Virginia has overperformed expectations more than just about anybody, at least by SP+, in which they’ve risen from 69th preseason to 43rd entering this week. Texas Tech has not done the same, dropping from 60th to 91st.
Texas Tech is not the worst team in the Big 12. Kansas has that locked up again, per tradition. But Texas Tech is bad. Really bad. And playing at home can only help them so much.
Pick: West Virginia -3 (-110). Low confidence.
