Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,676 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.3% isn’t amazing, but it’s positive, and we are nearly locked into a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have a whole lot of college football. First, though:
Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Walker Buehler, pitching on three days’ rest for the second time in a couple weeks…I don’t know, Dodgers. I don’t know that this is your best move.
Regardless, Buehler shouldn’t be expected to be his peak self.
Pick: Atlanta to win +130. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+100). Low confidence.
NLCS
Big hedge (five units, not a glitch), not terrible value but not good value. Brings our minimum ROI for the futures portfolio, as currently constructed, up to 16.5%.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +180. Low confidence.
Kent State @ Ohio
Kent State games have been wonky on and off since the Iowa game, presumably because of overvaluations of Iowa.
Pick: Ohio +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wisconsin @ Purdue
Similar phenomenon here. Purdue’s competitive and deserving of the plaudits they’ve received for last week’s performance, but Wisconsin’s offense is a lot better than that of Iowa, even if Wisconsin has a bad offense.
Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Pitt’s starting to get some hype, and they deserve it, but there are a lot of fundamentals in Clemson’s favor, starting with their defense, which has been stressed by the impotent offense but’s performed admirably.
Pick: Clemson +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Miami (Ohio) @ Ball State
Is Ball State getting a boost because they won the MAC last year? Maybe. That’s the only real explanation I can come up with here. The RedHawks have been fine on the season.
Pick: Miami (Ohio) +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Western Michigan @ Toledo
I saw an explanation for this line that tied back to third down efficiency, and I…I don’t know how predictive third down efficiency is. My hunch is that it’s not especially predictive, though.
Pick: Toledo +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Nevada @ Fresno State
Nevada’s been solid, splitting with Cal and Kansas State while beating Boise State. Fresno State’s looked odd at times, shining against Oregon and UCLA but struggling with UNLV and losing at Hawaii. Whether there was an island effect there or not, the Bulldogs are on the mainland now, and they’re the better team, playing at home.
Pick: Fresno State -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Tennessee @ Alabama
Hendon Hooker is reportedly going to start, but even if he doesn’t…this is an aggressive line. Alabama has plenty to prove, but Tennessee’s been surprisingly competitive in Josh Heupel’s first year. Only one loss by more than a score, and that was at Florida, so while the wins haven’t been impressive yet, it does seem likely that they’ll come. Perhaps starting in two weeks in Lexington.
Pick: Tennessee +25 (-110). Low confidence.
Western Kentucky @ FIU
At just 1-5, and 0-5 against FBS opponents, FIU’s in that territory in which you start to worry about the team giving up. It’s a fair question, but it’s still probably a little early to ask it, especially in the lower rungs of Conference USA.
Pick: FIU +15 (-110). Low confidence.
New Mexico State @ Hawaii
Second leg of a rare, in-season home-and-home here. Seems to be some familiarity discount being applied from that. Maybe the data backs it up, but if it does, the data has to have come from a tiny sample across a lot of seasons. Hard to trust that over the fundamentals.
Pick: Hawaii -18 (-110). Low confidence.
