Today’s Best Bets: Saturday, October 22nd

Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,611 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 949 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5^th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.

Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.

Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.

Two college football picks plus MLB futures today. For unit context, on the MLB futures: We started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 10.74 units of profit, and we have 402.74 units in the bankroll, with 672 units pending.

Minnesota @ Penn State

Tanner Morgan’s status is still, as of the time I write this, in doubt. The Gopher quarterback left last week’s game against Illinois with a head injury, and it has not yet been announced whether or not he’s cleared to play.

If Morgan can’t go, Minnesota’s offense is in a world of trouble, having virtually nobody else who’s thrown a collegiate pass, which worked out very badly at the end of the game in Champaign. Even if Morgan’s healthy, this is a close-enough matchup to make a Penn State cover a reasonable possibility. So, we’ll take the Nittany Lions to bounce back at home.

Pick: Penn State -5 (-110). Low confidence.

Kansas State @ TCU

We do not believe in TCU, and while Kansas State’s inconsistent, their median is within range to cover three and a half points on the road, because TCU is at best their equal. Or so our current read goes.

Pick: Kansas State +3.5 (-114). Low confidence.

World Series

Doubling up on the Phillies today, with little value elsewhere. We don’t trust Mike Clevinger for the Padres, so while we also don’t trust Bailey Falter, we like the Phils’ chances to make this a two-game lead.

It would be great for us were the Phillies to win this series quickly, since we’re still really relying on them or the Padres to at some point hold an advantage in the World Series. Ideally, that’ll come against the Yankees, but plays like this help us prepare for an Astros world. Here’s how the scenarios now stand:

Pick: Philadelphia to win +250. Medium confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +250. Medium confidence.