Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,369 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,754 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures, today’s college football. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 146.26 units, or 19.5%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 43–34–2. We’re up 5.87 units and up 7%.
NLCS
We’re in doubly on the Diamondbacks here, with a little room to hedge backwards tomorrow with the Rangers if we need it. The Phillies are definitely the favorite—they have Zack Wheeler pitching today, after all—but the odds are too valuable to pass up, and while we have plenty of upside on Arizona, it’s not a problem to have more. A lot can happen in what’s now a best of three series.
Pick: Arizona to win +160. Medium confidence. x2
Charlotte @ East Carolina
Movelor has consistently been too high on East Carolina this year, but at some point, it’s going to catch up. The likeliest thing each week, in fact, is that it has caught up, something that’s true for most systems when they’re high or low on a specific team. We think the market is outpacing reality on this.
Pick: East Carolina –6.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Iowa
Iowa’s offense is terrible. Iowa is not. Minnesota is a bad football team, and even if Iowa can’t score an offensive touchdown, we like their chances to cover this small number playing at home.
Pick: Iowa –3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Colorado State @ UNLV
The silent Colorado State hype continues, buoyed by the dramatic victory over Boise State. UNLV, meanwhile, has quietly kept winning. Eventually, wins mean something, regardless of schedule.
Pick: UNLV –7 (–105). Low confidence.
Army @ LSU
The thought here is not that Army will give LSU trouble, but that Army will keep things slow and that LSU is not interested in playing its top personnel for sixty minutes in this game.
Pick: Army +33 (–110). Low confidence.
Utah @ USC
It still appears, to our impression, that markets haven’t caught up on USC. It’s not just the defense, either. The offensive line had been struggling for weeks, and against Notre Dame it all came crashing down. We expect more crashing from this Utah defense, which isn’t Notre Dame quality but is far from bad. USC just isn’t that good a football team.
Pick: Utah +7 (–115). Low confidence.
Clemson @ Miami (FL)
In an opposite situation, markets have caught up to Clemson and then passed the Tigers, seeming to try to make up for lost time. It’s hard to believe Miami is any good based on their body of work this last season and a half. Clemson is not what they were, but their floor is rather high.
Pick: Clemson –3 (–105). Low confidence.
