Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,957 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,411 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Our active markets today are MLB futures and single-game college football. Here’s the context on each:
MLB futures – In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We placed two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season, as usual, then pivoted to placing a more variable number throughout the playoffs, as usual. We’re currently big fans of the Guardians and Mets, and we do not want the Dodgers to win it all.
Single-game college football bets – Our history here is mediocre, and we’ve had a bad first half of this season, with a 19–24 record so far. We’re down 6.67 units heading into today.
World Series
Well, we aren’t seeing any positive value today in MLB futures markets. This is a hedge, at least in a technical sense.
We stand to gain a lot if the Guardians can come back and win this series. That gives us at least a little leverage here, and with these odds close enough to positive-value that they’d be positive-value if we locked in a Yankees series win, we’re going to jump on them. Eighteen units, which is not enough to make the Yankees a profitable outcome for us (or even get close to that status), but does lessen that liability. Here are our portfolio’s scenarios now:
| ALCS | NLCS | World Series | Final Net |
| CLE | LAD | CLE | 338.53 |
| CLE | NYM | CLE | 330.20 |
| CLE | NYM | NYM | 221.20 |
| NYY | NYM | NYM | 159.40 |
| NYY | LAD | NYY | -64.17 |
| NYY | NYM | NYY | -72.50 |
| CLE | LAD | LAD | -248.47 |
| NYY | LAD | LAD | -310.27 |
Pick: New York (AL) to win +115. Medium confidence. x9
Miami (FL) @ Louisville
Miami’s outperformed Movelor’s preseason expectations. Movelor now rates the Hurricanes 6.6 points better than it did in August. Is Movelor underestimating them? Are they even better than that? Maybe, but Louisville’s also outperformed preseason expectations. They’re only up 4.3 points, and if you’re looking for who’s been better-tested so far, I lean towards the Cards.
Pick: Louisville +5 (–110). Low confidence.
UCLA @ Rutgers
We’re not concerned about teams traveling a long distance in the Big Ten. We’re concerned about teams who sleep on Pacific Time playing 9:00 AM kicks on their body clock. We saw it with Washington last week, and while UCLA survived this formula (against the spread) in State College, we’re not convinced that means they know how to approach it.
Pick: Rutgers –4 (–115). Low confidence.
Arizona State @ Cincinnati
This is the same idea, just in the Big 12. We like Kenny Dillingham, but Arizona doesn’t do Daylight Savings.
Pick: Cincinnati –5.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Georgia @ Texas
This line’s moved a little towards Texas since it opened, but we still like the Longhorns. We’re scared of Georgia showing up, but we just don’t think they’re the kind of team who can flip a switch. We don’t doubt that some teams can do it, but we think teams who can flip the switch are more likely to be the kind that show up to at least a respectable baseline every week. We also have significant doubts about the Alabama team who beat these Dawgs, given what that Alabama has done in its two games since.
Pick: Texas –4.5 (–120). Low confidence.
TCU @ Utah
We’ve already seen Utah with Isaac Wilson, no? And I mean, it wasn’t horrific? Maybe I’m a sucker, but if Houston put up 30 on TCU and SMU scored 66 against them, I’d imagine Wilson might be able to get his feet under him. Utah tends to be an inconsistent team within a given season, but in the way where they’re generally solid and then flop a few times. It would be in character for them to rally now.
Pick: Utah –3 (–110). Low confidence.
