Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,630 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.0% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have college football. First, though:
Boston @ Houston
Nathan Eovaldi’s pitched great so far this postseason, but there’s no guarantee he’ll keep doing it. Possibly a little overvalued, by the market.
Bringing us back to the under, though, is how fresh these bullpens are. Only Cristian Javier threw more than 20 pitches last night, and even he just threw 28.
Pick: Houston to win -115. Low confidence.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Max Scherzer sounds like the desired starter for the Dodgers today. If he does go, it’s worth remembering that he’s kind of pitching on normal rest.
It would be silly to say pitching the ninth inning in a one-run elimination game is the same as a between-start bullpen, but at the same time…it’s not that different. It’s extremely different, but different enough to really downgrade Scherzer’s quality tonight? That’s a stretch.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -135. Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup
We continue to hedge in our futures portfolio, trying to inch our way to still being able to profit even if our two darlings, Boston and Atlanta, both lose this week. We do have a decent amount down on the Astros from all the way back in March and June, but we need more. If today and tomorrow go poorly for our darlings, we’ll have to start amping up the units on these. Hopefully we can avoid that.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles -101. Low confidence.
NC State @ Boston College
NC State’s result against Clemson is obviously the more impressive of these two, especially given its timing, but the performances were rather similar, and that’s because these teams are rather similar. At least in terms of quality. In Chestnut Hill, this leans BC.
Pick: Boston College +3 (-110). Low confidence.
Stanford @ Washington State
You want to know a secret?
Oregon’s not very good.
Neither’s USC.
Stanford, like NC State, played the timing game. They aren’t actually better than Wazzu. (We don’t think.)
Pick: Washington State to win -110. Low confidence.
Mississippi @ Tennessee
The total on this game’s in the 80’s, making this virtually indistinguishable from a tossup, but we’ll take that extra point, just in case. Tennessee’s looked surprisingly good on paper so far, and Mississippi’s looked good on the field but, in a weird way, maybe hasn’t been tested to the degree it appears. Alabama didn’t really “test” them. Alabama whooped them. And Arkansas is uncertain enough still that Tennessee, as the line suggests, has a solid chance this evening at home.
Pick: Tennessee +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP
We’re 1-1 so far on the year betting against Louisiana Tech, on whom the market and Bill Connelly’s SP+ have a disagreement. (We’re 2-1 betting against Stanford, on whom the same is true.)
You can play the angle where UTEP’s worse than their record indicates, and that’s true, but at the same time, it takes something to win football games, and in what’s probably just an oddity but might mean something, Louisiana Tech has played each opponent—the good ones and bad ones alike—to a one-possession game.
Pick: UTEP +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
