Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,606 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% across 947 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Two college football picks before we get to today’s MLB futures. For unit context on the futures: We started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 14.74 units of profit, and we have 558.74 units in the bankroll, with 496 units pending. More futures tomorrow, plus a NASCAR play.
Minnesota @ Illinois
Illinois enters with a sterling defensive reputation, having not allowed more than ten points in a game since September 2nd. Those four opponents, though? Virginia. Chattanooga. Wisconsin in the last game of the Paul Chryst era. Iowa.
Minnesota is no offensive behemoth, but I’d venture they’re the most capable opponent when it comes to scoring (and overall, but that’s more obvious) the Illini have faced all year. It’s not going to be a barn burner, but it’d be surprising if the total didn’t reach forty.
Pick: Over 39.5 (-110). Low confidence.
North Carolina @ Duke
I understand the UNC doubt. What I don’t understand is the belief in Duke. It seems to really hinge on the fact the Blue Devils started 3-0 and then gave Kansas a game. That’s a house of cards.
Pick: UNC -7 (-111). Low confidence.
World Series (partial hedge)
The Dodgers play here is a hedge. It has terrible value, but the gap between our Padres scenarios and our Dodgers scenarios is intolerably large given our goals with the MLB portfolio this year (the primary goal is to wipe out our 215ish-unit all-time deficit, the secondary goal is to at least cut into it by a good chunk and keep our high/medium-confidence record positive). We’re taking a chunk of our Padres/Phillies upside and putting it on the Dodgers, still hopeful that both the Padres and Phillies will get through their series and we’ll be flying high entering the LCS.
On the positive-value side, we’re putting a little each on the Astros and Phillies. The Astros play is hardly positive-value, but it’s positive, and we like having at least some upside on them because we have major liability on both the Guardians and Yankees, and the Yankees could be tough to hedge out of (thankfully, the Guardians will be a sizable underdog should they advance, so it’ll be straightforward if we need to hedge against them winning). The Phillies is one of the best plays available, and so we’re taking it. Neither they nor the Pads are particularly safe, but they’re in a great spot. Leading 2-0 is a great spot.
Ideally, the Padres, Mariners, Phillies, and Guardians will all win today and tonight. That’s in order of priority for us.
Pick: Houston to win +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +650. Medium confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +525. Medium confidence. x10
