Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 624 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Six picks today: three in college football, three in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
East Carolina @ SMU
SMU enters this game coming off a barn-burner with Memphis, in which the two teams combined for 102 points. Still, SMU’s totals have only eclipsed 70 three times this year, and in all three occasions, the opposing offense was much better than that of ECU’s, which comes in rated as the 29th-worst in the FBS by SP+.
Pick: Under 72.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Charlotte @ UTEP
UTEP struggles to score. They haven’t posted more than 26 against any FBS team. Charlotte’s offense, though, is respectable, rated 54th-best in the FBS by SP+. With both defenses in SP+’s bottom thirty, this should be high-scoring, at least by UTEP’s relative standards.
Pick: Over 56 (-110). Low confidence.
Stanford @ Colorado
Stanford’s hanging around, sitting at .500 both overall and in Pac-12 play entering this afternoon’s game in Boulder. Still, it’s hard not to wonder what happened to the program that made four New Year’s Six/BCS Bowls in five years not too long ago. The program’s a long way ahead of where it was when Jim Harbaugh took over. Under David Shaw, it’s starting to decline. It’s hard to imagine Stanford’s athletic department turning the page on Shaw, but if the losses per season continue to mount, it’s fair to wonder whether the man many recently thought would use Palo Alto as a stepping stone will instead find it the peak of his career.
Pick: Colorado to win (+140). Low confidence.
College Basketball
Penn @ Rice
Penn scored a nice road victory over Alabama Tuesday in one of college basketball’s opening night’s most exciting games. It’s possible, though, that this has led to an overestimating of them. They’re certainly a much better team than Rice, but with the game on the road, a six point spread is significant, especially with Rice not far from a median Division I men’s basketball team.
Pick: Rice +6 (-110). Low confidence.
IUPUI @ Bradley
In similar fashion to how early results may have swung the needle too far, this line seems to be making more of IUPUI’s 33-point loss to Butler three days ago than is reasonable. Of course, it’s very possible it’s making the right amount of it, or not making enough of it, but we’re trying to find 55%-60% likely covers here. This fits the bill.
Pick: IUPUI +12 (-110). Low confidence.
Cal State-Northridge @ New Mexico
This should be the best New Mexico team in recent memory, finally ready to possibly contend in the Mountain West. Excitement may be overblown, though, fueled by nostalgia for days when New Mexico basketball meant something.
Pick: Cal State-Northridge +14 (-110). Low confidence.
