Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,779 published picks, not including pending futures. 3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football game picks, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Temple @ East Carolina
East Carolina’s having a solid year. It might be their best since 2014, when Lincoln Riley was still their offensive coordinator and the Pirates were new to the AAC.
Temple’s having a bad year. Their last three showings were all losses by twenty or more points, with one coming against currently-two-win South Florida.
It’s one of those things where yes, ECU should be favored, but the recent blowouts seem to have given the game a bit of a “no line is too high” view, in the market’s eyes. Winning by three scores is going to be hard for ECU to do today.
Pick: Temple +16 (-110). Low confidence.
Colorado State @ Wyoming
Sticking with recency bias, Wyoming’s lost its last four games, and is still hunting for its first Mountain West win. Colorado State, meanwhile, seems to have righted the ship, bouncing back from an 0-2 start against South Dakota State and Vanderbilt to play .500 ball since, with respectable showings each week.
Have the Rams figured it out? Maybe. But they’re also a team that sometimes looks better on the scoresheet than they do in win probability, because their game consists of dragging teams into plodding, low-scoring affairs.
Wyoming doesn’t mind a good plod.
Pick: Wyoming +3.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Clemson @ Louisville
Clemson’s offense has deservedly been the butt of jokes, but I’m not sure the defense has gotten enough credit. They’ve allowed no more than 27 points in a game, and as strange as this seems upon remembering it, they did hold Georgia to ten.
Expect a good day from that unit today in Kentucky.
Pick: Clemson -4 (-110). Low confidence.
