Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,796 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 1,126 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we’ll have to wait.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
We may have reached the final day of the World Series. Here’s where our MLB Futures portfolio stands: We started the season with 1,040 units available. We’ve so far profited 12.84 units. We have 658.84 units in our bankroll. Before the following picks are placed, we’re in a scenario where we’ll profit by an additional 243.30 units should the Phillies win it all and profit by an additional 3.08 units should the Astros win it all.
One more hedge there, and then college football plays for today:
World Series (Hedge)
26 units on this one, giving us space to miss our other plays this weekend but still get back to even overall if the Phillies win the series. It’s very simply a hedge. We’ve gotten to this point, we’d like to have lower downside, this is what we’ve got. We’ll profit on the season no matter what, but it might only be a 2% return.
Pick: Houston to win -550. Medium confidence. x13
Iowa @ Purdue
The Iowa meme continues, this time against a Purdue team who’s had exactly one total finish under 55 on the year. It’s windy, it might be wet, but these guys should get to 40 combined.
Pick: Over 39.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Oklahoma State @ Kansas
Jalon Daniels is reportedly not starting, and Kansas is still favored here? I know Spencer Sanders might be out, and I know Oklahoma State got beat 48-0 by K-State last weekend, but all Kansas has been able to do these last three weeks is keep it close. Both their Big 12 wins came against teams unlikely to make a bowl. We really like the Pokes here.
Pick: Oklahoma State +1 (-110). Low confidence.
