Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,890 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
It’s a big day for college football. Here’s the context on that market for us.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 53–47–2. We’re up 1.58 units and up 2%. That’s a big sample, and we still don’t know if it’s going badly or going well.
Notre Dame @ Clemson
Clemson is scary. They’re talented, their losses have been close, and for the first time in ages, they can legitimately play the disrespect card. Notre Dame is just a lot better right now, and Notre Dame’s defense should punish the Cade Klubnik offense, which looks even worse than it did with DJ Uiagalelei under center.
Pick: Notre Dame –3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Arizona State @ Utah
Arizona State’s been playing better lately, but they’ve been getting closer results ever since they played USC, which makes us doubt that this is a case where Movelor is being too slow to come around. We’re viewing this line as an overreaction to last week’s ASU win.
Pick: Utah –10 (–110). Low confidence.
Navy @ Temple
Navy? We have no idea. Temple? Very bad.
Pick: Navy –7 (–105). Low confidence.
Penn State @ Maryland
Movelor is enamored with Penn State, and has been for some time. It did, though, make quite a bit out of the Indiana loss. Err, win. The Indiana escape.
The bottom line is that getting beaten by the number one team in the country and then sleepwalking against a cupcake shouldn’t be affecting perceptions this dramatically.
Pick: Penn State –8 (–108). Low confidence.
Iowa vs. Northwestern
This is getting the service academy treatment in markets, but even with those, usually the spread is bigger when one team’s much better than the other. I’m impressed too by how Northwestern’s rallied, but Iowa isn’t bad, you guys.
Pick: Iowa –5 (–110). Low confidence.
Illinois @ Minnesota
On that note: Illinois has been playing better and is coming off a week idle, and that’s maybe lulling bettors to sleep a little on a Minnesota team who beat Iowa and has a few other solid feathers in its cap. The Gophers are very weird, but we think they’re better than the Illini, and they get them at home.
Pick: Minnesota –2.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Hawaii @ Nevada
Nevada took a long time to get that first win, but they had some solid performances mixed in there, and they now ride a two-game winning streak into this one against Hawaii, who’s 0–4 in conference play.
Pick: Nevada –3 (–115). Low confidence.
Georgia Southern @ Texas State
We believe the Sun Belt standings with regard to these two. Georgia Southern’s better, and by more than half a point.
Pick: Georgia Southern +2.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Kansas @ Iowa State
We really aren’t sold on Kansas, and we think there’s something to the theory that Matt Campbell teams systematically stink in September. It’s not ideal, but it makes for good “momentum” coming out of October (really, Iowa State is just outperforming artificially lowered expectations).
Pick: Iowa State –3 (–105). Low confidence.
LSU @ Alabama
Is Alabama better than LSU? We think so. That’s kind of all this boils down to.
Pick: Alabama –3 (–105). Low confidence.
Oregon State @ Colorado
Oregon State’s disrespect continues, and maybe that’s fair and maybe it isn’t, but for as wild as this game could get, we think the Beavers lay the hurt on a Colorado offensive line that can’t be feeling great about itself after taking all the blame lately.
Pick: Oregon State –13 (–110). Low confidence.
Boise State @ Fresno State
Similarly to so many of these games: Is Fresno State better than Boise State? We think so. When the line’s at 2.5 or 3 or 3.5 and it favors the home team, that’s the question.
Pick: Fresno State –2.5 (–115). Low confidence.
UCLA @ Arizona
This one does not favor the home team, and we don’t think that’s wise. Part of why we’re still in on Oregon State is that Arizona is playing better these days than anyone in the Pac-12 not named Oregon. We like that to continue.
Pick: Arizona +2.5 (–105). Low confidence.
