Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 701 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Six picks today across college football and college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Wake Forest @ Syracuse
Syracuse has had some high-scoring games of late, most notably a 90-point affair with Louisville last week.
Louisville’s defense, though, is not Wake Forest’s (though Wake Forest’s isn’t anything too special in its own right). Wake Forest’s offense, too, is not Louisville’s.
Syracuse has only topped 24 points four times this year: against Western Michigan, Holy Cross, Boston College, and Louisville. Of the opponents in those four, Louisville has the best defense, and as was said, it isn’t much.
Today might be high-scoring again. 68 points, though, looks like a stretch.
Pick: Under 68 (-110). Low confidence.
Baylor @ Kansas
Kansas has done some surprising things this year, and Baylor has struggled to really put teams away.
Still, overall, Baylor measures out to be 20 or more points better than the Jayhawks. Even in Lawrence, that’s enough of a margin to make this the right play, especially if it doesn’t slip to 14.5.
Pick: Baylor -14 (-110). Low confidence.
BYU @ San Diego State
BYU’s scored a few sizable victories since the calendar hit November. They have yet to face anyone of San Diego State’s defensive strength, though.
SDSU’s had a hard time scoring points all season, and it will be a surprise if they eclipse 20 today. Yet, their defense remains one of the best in the country, and should be good enough to keep this a one-possession game.
Pick: San Diego State +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
St. Francis (NY) @ St. Peter’s
It’s not looking like a good year for St. Peter’s in the MAAC: They’re expected to duke it out with Niagara and Marist for last place in the regular season. The Brooklyn edition of St. Francis doesn’t have it much better, but with Central Connecticut State occupying the bottom rung of the NEC, the Terriers at least don’t have as much risk of suffering the last place indignity.
Overall, St. Francis is the better team here by about three points. Even taking those three points away (given it’s a road game), there’s opportunity available on St. Francis.
Pick: St. Francis (NY) +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Jacksonville State vs. Chattanooga
The story’s similar here to St. Francis & St. Peter’s: Jacksonville State’s the slightly better team. Chattanooga’s favored.
The more interesting thing here is that some odds have Jackson State listed as Chattanooga’s opponent instead of Jacksonville State. The proper opponent is, indeed, Jacksonville State, but you might get your bet scored a push depending how the listing reads. Be aware of that going in.
Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Belmont @ Middle Tennessee State
MTSU’s still missing Reggie Scurry, one of their best players from last year. Despite transferring in before last season, it’s this year that he’s missing the first eleven games.
Regardless of how that all worked out logically with the NCAA, Scurry’s absence is hurting MTSU’s offense. Their offensive efficiency has been about five points worse per 100 possessions than expected, adjusting for opponents, and after a particularly woeful showing against Ohio last weekend, in which they scored only 63 points on 73 possessions, this total is taking that into account.
What the total doesn’t seem to be taking into account is that MTSU’s defense has also been worse than expected, to the tune of ten points per 100 possessions. With Belmont more than happy to push the tempo, expect the visitors to post a large number in this one. Expect MTSU to score just enough to pull out the over.
Pick: Over 155 (-110). Low confidence.
