Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 609 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Kansas State @ Kansas
The last time Kansas State and Kansas both won the week prior to this rivalry matchup was more recent than one would think—2016, when the Jayhawks beat Texas in overtime. Still, it’s been a while since there’s been this much optimism around a Kansas program.
The hype isn’t unwarranted. Kansas has notched some impressive performances on the season, even if bowl eligibility is most likely not in the cards. Yes, the Jayhawks are one of the worst Power Five teams by pretty much every rating system. Yes, this is still a step up.
While it’s a step up for Kansas, though, what Chris Klieman’s accomplishing in his first season in Manhattan is also noteworthy. Kansas State, as you may have heard, just upset Oklahoma at home. The Wildcats are 5-2, with a win over Mississippi State in Starkville and losses only to Baylor—who’s undefeated—and Oklahoma State on the road. They’re highly unlikely to make the Big 12 Championship, but ten wins, including one in a bowl game, isn’t out of the question.
This could well be a very good game. The hype machine, though, seems to have stalled out on Kansas State while operating at a high level for the Jayhawks. A Wildcats cover is more likely than not.
Pick: Kansas State -5 (-110). Low confidence.
Army @ Air Force
Army and Air Force, respectively, have limited opponents to the second and 18th-fewest plays per game in the FBS this season.
Yet we’re taking the over.
This is in large part because Air Force’s offense is very good. It’s rated the 27th-best in the FBS by SP+, with the Falcons scoring 30 or more in all but two of their games so far (Navy held them to 25, Boise State held them to 19). It might be a slow game, but it figures to be an efficient one, with neither defense particularly strong. In this case, it seems the plays per game stat may be overemphasized in the line.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Northwestern @ Indiana
On one side of the ball, this projects to be a great matchup. Indiana’s offense is the 14th-best in the country by SP+, and while Michael Penix Jr.’s status is uncertain, Peyton Ramsey’s stats behind center are remarkably similar to those of the starter. Northwestern, for its part, has the 13th-best defense in the country by SP+.
On the other side, it breaks down. While Indiana’s defense is a respectable 42nd by SP+, Northwestern’s offense is a woeful 126th. Even with starting quarterback Hunter Johnson back after taking time off to support his mom during her breast cancer treatment, the Wildcats figure to have a hard time moving the ball.
This is one where SP+’s projection is an outlier relative to the field. Most rating systems we use here have Indiana an eleven or twelve-point favorite. SP+ has the Hoosiers winning by 19. The line moved slightly towards Northwestern when Johnson’s return was announced. It’s unclear, though, how much Johnson’s return will help the struggling Northwestern offense, and while SP+’s expectation might be an outlier, that doesn’t mean it should be discounted. Indiana might not win by 19. It won’t be surprising if they win by more than ten.
Pick: Indiana -10 (-110). Low confidence.
