Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,852 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.5% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
If you’re looking for our weekend college football picks, you can find them here. That said, we do have a futures hedge:
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
This is a small hedge, and it’s indirect—Wisconsin doesn’t hold a lot of weight for us (we have a lot more upside with NC State and Washington State, and a lot higher probable value with Oklahoma State and Utah). It’s the only opportunity to bet against our incoming interests which comes with positive value, though, and if it hits, it opens up a few routes to profitability over the conference championship portion of the that would otherwise be closed, and it doesn’t close any that would otherwise be open.
Pick: Minnesota to win +225. Low confidence.
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And lastly, today’s basketball:
Northern Iowa @ St. Bonaventure
We’re actually probably lower on the Bonnies than consensus (they’ve looked great, but none of their opponents so far are have a very good tournament outlook, with the sole possible exception of bubbly Clemson). Northern Iowa is just so bad by their standards again. Rarely competitive so far.
Pick: St. Bonaventure -9.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Oklahoma @ UCF
UCF’s quietly off to a good start, having rarely been in much trouble so far. The schedule hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that much worse than that of Oklahoma, whose best win so far is East Carolina. UCF might not be the better team, but it’s close, and the game’s in Orlando.
Pick: UCF to win +100. Low confidence.
