Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,387 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Today’s college basketball, today’s college football. Football first:
Oregon @ Oregon State
Oregon State is good. Oregon State is tough. Oregon State has a lot to play for in the realm of pride and dignity and finishing this year ranked, which is a big threshold psychologically for programs.
But Oregon’s a solidly better team. And Oregon has more to play for in terms of national stakes. And while the Ducks didn’t get it done against Washington, they very nearly did. It was a little fluky. We see them finishing the job today.
Pick: Oregon -1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Southeast Missouri State @ Montana
Montana finished the year badly, getting pounded by their archrival in a moderate surprise. In this playoff opener, though, they’re heavy favorites and, per Movelor, should be favored by more. We’ll ride with the Grizz.
Pick: Montana -12 (-113). Low confidence.
Bryant @ Syracuse
Syracuse should slow Bryant down, but Bryant can shoot, but Bryant’s been doing that shoot against a bunch of low-majors and FAU. We’ll trust the zone, even if the team’s struggling.
Pick: Under 161.5 (-105). Low confidence.
South Carolina State @ Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky’s off to a good start, but it’s one of those good starts where the competition has been rough, and not in the difficult way. South Carolina State’s an odd team tempo-wise, which can lead to inflated scores, but at some point that should be baked into the numbers, and KenPom has this closer, so we’ll trust it.
Pick: South Carolina State +24.5 (-114). Low confidence.
