Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,963 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
There’s college football; there’s college basketball; we’re adding a few FCS futures. Here’s how we’re doing in each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 12–9. We’re up 1.85 units and we’re up 9%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 69–70–3. We’re down 6.77 units and down 5%.
UTEP @ Loyola Marymount
This is a purer test of what we started trying yesterday: Finding two or three-possession favorites and betting on them or against them based on how good they are at shooting free throws. So far, LMU’s been solid from the stripe.
Pick: Loyola Marymount –4 (–105). Low confidence.
Ohio State @ Michigan
Ohio State got better in the trenches. Ohio State got worse at quarterback. Michigan looks like a slightly more dominant version of last year’s team. Where does all this land?
We think Ohio State was a better team than Michigan was last year, and that they played a dumb game while Michigan played a spectacular game. They got bullied in the trenches in 2021 and adjusted their gameplan accordingly in 2022, only to get burned over the top by J.J. McCarthy. We expect them to adjust again this year, and for the adjustment to work this time. Michigan just doesn’t have the overall talent to consistently compete with these guys. Maybe it’s a bad matchup, but we prefer overall measurements of ability over matchups.
Pick: Ohio State +3 (–116). Low confidence.
North Carolina Central @ Richmond
The FCS playoffs start today, and we’re trusting the CAA. North Carolina Central had a great season, but the MEAC is a bad league, and NCCU didn’t even win it. This is the only line that’s deviating significantly from Movelor. We’re going to chase it.
Pick: Richmond –4.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Florida State @ Florida
This might be remembered as the Tate Rodemaker game, for better or worse. Florida State’s season’s on the line, and the three-star recruit is tasked with saving it.
We have no idea whether to trust Rodemaker or not, but the good things about FSU early this season extended far beyond Jordan Travis. We like the Seminoles’ overall base of talent and we trust Mike Norvell to get a win he needs to get. The biggest risk is that they try to make it too pretty, but even then, that could work in their advantage. On average, college football coaches err on the side of cowardice. Breaking loose from that could be to FSU’s advantage.
Pick: Florida State –6.5 (–110). Low confidence.
FCS National Championship
We aren’t setting up a full FCS portfolio here—the odds are too inconsistently available (and we have been too inconsistent in our own approach; apologies, but the FCS probabilities will be up sometime shortly before the 1PM EST kickoff)—but we like these three prices and we’re confident in our ability to hedge out of them if need be. We’ll add them to our futures tracking of our overall college football portfolio going forward. Montana and Furman are in a good corner of the bracket, with Montana looking dominant in recent days. South Dakota is in a fairly bad spot—they’ll get North Dakota or Sacramento State and then, if they win, Montana State or North Dakota State—but the Coyotes beat both NDSU and North Dakota in the regular season, and the UND win came just two weeks ago. These are good teams. Not as good as South Dakota State by any stretch, but good enough to give us value we can hopefully turn into profit.
Pick: Montana to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: South Dakota to win +8000. Low confidence.
Pick: Furman to win +10000. Low confidence.
