Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,947 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got college football and college basketball for tonight. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 8–6. We’re up 1.27 units and we’re up 9%. We’ve won seven of our last nine.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 66–64–3. We’re down 3.55 units and we’re down 3%.
Weber State vs. Yale
Dillon Jones played 39 minutes in Weber State’s one-point loss yesterday to Gardner-Webb, used (per kenpom) on 40% of Weber possessions. He can definitely put in a good game today, but we’d imagine Weber tries to lean on him less, and we’d imagine that makes them a little worse than their baseline.
Pick: Yale –5.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Louisville @ Miami
We understand the Louisville doubt, and their inconsistency is notable. But Miami has been habitually overvalued this season by the narrative, and we’re not sure how much they feel they have to play for after last week’s heartbreak against Florida State. Give us the Cardinals to take care of business.
Pick: Louisville +1 (–110). Low confidence.
Michigan @ Maryland
The concern here is not so much distraction for Michigan as letdown in between the big win over Penn State and the big opportunity against the Buckeyes. This team is too good, though, and Maryland is not what they were earlier this year, and even earlier this year Maryland had plenty of vulnerabilities.
Pick: Michigan –17.5 (–116). Low confidence.
Utah @ Arizona
Arizona has been playing excellent football, but it’s hard to sustain that level of play coming off a baseline as low as what Arizona’s was. We saw the first hints of letdown against Colorado last weekend. We think the better team wins this one in Tucson.
Pick: Utah +2 (–111). Low confidence.
Illinois @ Iowa
Iowa’s offense is bad. Iowa is not bad.
Pick: Iowa –3 (+100). Low confidence.
UCF @ Texas Tech
UCF smoked Oklahoma State last weekend, but they are not as good as that result might imply, partly because Oklahoma State is overranked. Today, they play a comparably good Texas Tech team, one that’s been snakebit this year but has found a way to win for two straight weeks now. We think they do it again.
Pick: Texas Tech –2.5 (–115). Low confidence.
