Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 649 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Eight picks today across seven college football and basketball games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Kansas @ Oklahoma State -posted at 11:48 AM EST, before the rest
There’s a narrative going around that this season represents progress for Kansas’ football program. In the sense of momentum and hope, the narrative’s probably true. It’s hard, though, to find concrete evidence supporting the claim. No, they didn’t lose to their FCS opponent like they did last year, and yes, three wins matches their highest total since Mark Mangino’s final season in Lawrence (2009), but they finished last year rated the 100th-best team in the FBS by SP+, and they’re currently 94th in that system. Also, they’re the favorite in zero of their final three games.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, hasn’t pulled away from anyone this year. Their largest margin of victory over an FBS opponent is 19, on the road in Tulsa. To a large extent, though, this has to do with Oklahoma State’s schedule. Both their FBS nonconference games were on the road against opponents rated better than Kansas. Within the Big 12, only West Virginia comes close to rivaling Kansas for the status of league doormat, and the Pokes have yet to face the Mountaineers.
It’s rare to find a confluence of narratives pointing in the opposite direction of the numbers, but when you do, it’s frequently a sign the narratives are swaying the line. It looks like that’s what’s happening here.
Pick: Oklahoma State -17.5 (-110). Low confidence.
West Virginia @ Kansas State
Looking at various yards per play metrics, Kansas State hardly stands out. They’re near the FBS median in yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, and yards per opponent pass attempt, and while their rush defense is suspect by yards per opponent rush, it’s also had to deal with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, who are first and sixth in yards per rush, respectively. They’re a solid, well-balanced team that, so far this season, has performed as you’d expect a solid, well-balanced team to perform. They’ve won all but one game at home, gone .500 against playoff contenders, and never really been blown out.
All of this bodes well for today’s contest with West Virginia, normally a reliably solid program that’s instead found itself in the Big 12 cellar this year with a case of whiplash. West Virginia’s susceptibility to being burned through the air portends well for K-State to score a lot, and while the Mountaineers struggle to move the ball on the ground, K-State’s defense doesn’t figure to stop them cold.
Pick: Kansas State -14 (-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 46 (-110). Low confidence.
Arizona State @ Oregon State
Through six games, Arizona State was a puzzling home loss to Colorado away from a perfect record. Now, they’re hardly above .500.
It’s not an unusual story for a Power Five team, though ASU’s case is a bit more unusual, since beating Michigan State on the road was more than most Power Five teams do in any undefeated nonconference stretch. Still, it doesn’t look like there’s much real cause for concern as far as ASU goes. Their loss to UCLA was disappointing, yes, but it was on the road, and UCLA’s righted the ship this past month. Arizona State’s 41st in SP+ entering this week. They were 33rd before these last three losses. That’s not a very significant difference, especially when considering starting quarterback Jayden Daniels didn’t play in one of those games (he’s expected to return today).
In all, while a trip to Oregon State is nothing to take lightly this season (the Beavers are the most competitive they’ve been since the Mike Riley years), the public is undervaluing what the Sun Devils have shown so far this year.
Pick: Arizona State -1 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
Campbell @ The Citadel -posted at 12:45 PM EST
For this game to hit its total, KenPom’s adjusted efficiencies would imply it would need to reach 78 possessions. For The Citadel, that would be no problem—they’ve successfully sped up UNC-Asheville and Georgia roughly ten percent from their preferred tempos. Campbell, though, likes to play very, very slow. Even in an overtime game Tuesday night against UNC-Wilmington, there were only 72 possessions, and speeding up the Camels ten percent from their preferred pace still wouldn’t yield 78 possessions.
Neither defense is very good. If Campbell lets The Citadel control the pace, the under is certainly at risk. On the whole, though, it looks like a reasonable play.
Pick: Under 158 (-110). Low confidence.
Sacred Heart @ Binghamton
The Northeastern corner of the United States has an abundance of small schools playing college basketball. Together, the America East, the NEC, the MAAC, and the Patriot League make up about 12% of college basketball, and with few programs strong enough to frequently compete with the big names, they make up a much larger share of the low-major half of the sport.
Even in this environment, Binghamton has historically struggled to compete. They’ve managed a winning record just three times since entering Division I, and they’ve endured ten straight losing seasons entering this year. Sacred Heart, though significantly better this season, has a similar history. Their last winning season also came in the 2008-09 campaign.
This doesn’t figure to be a particularly aesthetically pleasing game, but it should be close, and the most trustworthy numbers available have it closer to a three-point spread than five and a half.
Pick: Binghamton +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Jackson State @ SMU
We haven’t seen much yet from SMU, making it hard to say whether they’ll be able to make any sort of run at a significant postseason tournament. From what we do know, they profile as respectable, though not great, on both offense and defense, with a tendency to slow things down.
We also haven’t seen much from Jackson State, who may actually have the easier postseason path of the two, going through the SWAC. Jackson State is far from the SWAC favorite, but they’re expected to be competitive in league play. Against the full scope of Division I basketball, their offense is woeful, but their defense is merely bad, and they, too, like to keep the pace slower than the average squad.
It’s this slow pace, coupled with the fact that SMU’s reserves haven’t exactly poured it on in their first two games (over the last ten minutes of each, they’re a combined -6 in point differential), that makes Jackson State look like a good bet to cover.
Pick: Jackson State +21.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Maine @ Portland
Two of the last three seasons, Portland has finished in last place in the WCC. This year, they’re again expected to bring up the rear.
That doesn’t mean, though, that Portland is the same team they’ve been as of late. Their KenPom ranking is stronger than where it’s ended the season each of those last three campaigns, and by a fairly decent margin.
The WCC is as stratified as ever, and figures to continue last year’s trend of having a surging tier behind Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and BYU. Portland might not be part of that surging tier, but they do look poised to keep the back end the tightest it’s been in years.
Pick: Portland -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
