Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,343 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College basketball first, then college football.
Green Bay @ Georgetown
Georgetown looked terrible against Coppin State, and might very well be terrible. By Georgetown’s standards, they probably are terrible. But Green Bay is one of the worst teams in Division I men’s basketball this year, and with Georgetown running the floor, they should do about the same thing Indiana State did to the Phoenix. We’ll take the Hoyas on a big line, as scary as that admittedly is.
Pick: Georgetown -17.5 (-118). Low confidence.
Wright State @ Louisville
Wright State played an eyeballs game against Davidson this week, but Davidson is not expected to be what they have often been. Really, the Raiders probably aren’t much better than Bellarmine, and while Bellarmine did beat Louisville, it was close and the Cardinals had to have played a bad game, right? I sure hope so, publishing this pick.
Pick: Louisville -6.5 (-102). Low confidence.
Rutgers @ Michigan State
We’re doubling up on the same game here, and the results are correlated, and we don’t love doing that. But. Michigan State is a much, much better team than Rutgers, and while they should struggle to score, 41 is a low total, especially in what should be a turnover-ridden game? Maybe that’s my perception. Still, it’s a low total and a narrow spread for Rutgers playing a decent enough team.
Pick: Michigan State -10.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 41.5 (+100). Low confidence.
