Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,407 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Emmanuel Clase is likely unavailable for Cleveland after pitching each of the last two nights. How big a deal is that? Well, Clase is expected, per FanGraphs’ depth charts, to contribute 1.1 WAR over the rest of the season. Compared to the difference between Joey Votto’s WAR and Kyle Farmer’s WAR (which is the only WAR gap on Cincinnati’s roster), that’s enough to push this from a don’t-bet to a low confidence play on the fresh-bullpened visitors.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +105. Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Vince Velasquez has given up a lot of home runs. Five over his three starts since being bumped into the Philadelphia rotation. His xERA, though, is only 4.30, which might not mean you should be confident in him, but does probably mean it’s ok to give him as good a chance as you’d give him without the dingers.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +145. Low confidence.
