Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,826 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo only went 1-2 yesterday, losing its first total of the year. So, it’s now 2-3 on moneylines, 5-1 on totals, and up 1.81 units after five days. We’ll continue with it today, and add more to our futures portfolio (we intend to get up to a total of 100 NHL futures units invested when this is all said and done, but we have an extra 100 set aside for hedging, if you’re looking to scale). We’ll have F1 and NASCAR bets tomorrow morning. Gotta get these published now.
Colorado @ Nashville
Both of Gelo’s plays today come from the Avalanche/Predators game. It’s still higher on the Predators than the market, and it views this total as the furthest of all four today from where the true line should lie. We’ll see. Need to hit one to stay profitable so far.
Pick: Nashville to win +191. Low confidence.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-116). Low confidence.
First Round: Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
With last night’s win, the Maple Leafs moved firmly into control of this series, holding a one-game lead and effective home-ice advantage. Gelo views this as positive-value, and with nothing else on the Leafs so far and a longshot-heavy first round array, we’ll double up.
Pick: Toronto to win -255. Low confidence.
Pick: Toronto to win -255. Low confidence.
