Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say not to read too much into this, but over a sample size of 204 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
St. Louis @ Chicago (NL)
Cubs fans and Cubs-focused media celebrated Yu Darvish’s last start—a six inning, two hit, four walk, eight strikeout performance in which he only allowed one run—as a major step forward. And by Game Score, it was his best start of the year.
But those numbers, all else being equal, tend to translate into a slightly different outcome than what happened—an outcome that looks a lot more like a conventional Yu Darvish start this season. Darvish benefitted from stranding 100% of possible runners on base (the only run came on a solo home run), and from a .091 BABIP that implies he would have, given the quantity of contact allowed, given up six or seven hits with league-average outcomes on balls in play.
Still, there really were encouraging signs. His walk numbers per inning brought down his season average a touch, his strikeout numbers per inning brought up his season average a touch, and the median exit velocity of balls in play against him was 88.4 mph, close to his season best of 87.9.
If you’re emotionally (or financially) invested in Darvish’s success, keep an eye on walks and home runs. From 2012 to 2017, his highest BB/9IP total was 4.19, and his highest HR/9IP total was 1.30. So far in 2019, those sit at 6.91 and 2.20, respectively.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -125. Low confidence.
Houston @ Anaheim
Every now and then it’s fun to look at Mike Trout’s numbers and laugh.
So far this season, Trout’s wRC+ is 191, meaning he’s been nearly twice as successful at the plate as the average major league hitter, and that’s with an almost perfectly average BABIP of .301. His OBP is .492 over 128 PA’s, meaning if he reaches base today just one more time than he doesn’t, he’ll be squarely on .500. It’s May 4th, and he’s still reached base in every game he’s played. His WAR (averaged between fWAR and bWAR) is 2.5 despite missing three games with that groin injury, putting him on pace for a 12.7 WAR over the total season, better than any season from a hitter since at least the 1920’s.
Mike Trout is fun.
Pick: Anaheim to win +121. Low confidence.
Boston @ Chicago (AL)
Manny Bañuelos’ path to the majors is a novel. Signed by the Yankees out of the Mexican League in 2008 at the age of 17, he had the makings of a star, pitching in the Futures Game in 2009, starting the Arizona Fall League’s all-star game in 2010, and spending spring training with the big-league club in 2011 and 2012. Mariano Rivera raved about him. Prospect rankings had him as one of the 50 best in the game. Bañuelos was on a path that often ends with significant major league innings, if not a substantial MLB career.
Those innings didn’t come.
Early in 2012, Bañuelos was shut down, requiring Tommy John surgery that made him miss the entirety of 2013. Upon returning in 2014, he struggled even at the AA level, posting a 4.59 ERA over 49 innings. Prior to the 2015 campaign, Brian Cashman shipped Bañuelos to Atlanta in exchange for David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve.
Finally, in July of 2015, his major league callup came. In his debut, he lasted into the sixth inning, striking out seven and walking none while allowing only two hits. Cramping ended his outing early, but he entered the Braves rotation full-time over the rest of the month, and while his results weren’t stellar, they were a start.
Then, a bone spur. Rest. rehab. A brief second MLB stint in September. Surgery. A disappointing spring training in 2016, culminating in more rest due to elbow discomfort. Then, the dreaded DFA.
Nine days after the Braves cut him loose, Bañuelos signed with the Angels. The minor league campaign was effectively over at that point, but over the course of 2017, Bañuelos pitched adequately as a swingman for the Salt Lake Bees before electing free agency and signing with the Dodgers, with whom he spent 2018 in Oklahoma City, posting a respectable 3.73 ERA.
Now, following a November swap between the Dodgers and White Sox, Bañuelos has found his way back to the majors, and through 20 big-league innings this year, including two starts, the long-promised talent is pitching pretty well. 20 innings isn’t a big sample size, so his ERA will probably regress from 2.70, where it currently stands, towards 4.17, where FIP indicates it should be, but things are encouraging, especially when considering that Bañuelos is still only 28.
Tonight, Bañuelos starts against the Red Sox, trying to keep his team ahead of the reigning champions in the American League standings. After ten years, Manny Bañuelos is right where he was always supposed to be.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +160. Low confidence.
Toronto @ Texas
Thomas Pannone debuted for the Blue Jays last year after entering the organization by way of Cleveland in the 2017 Joe Smith trade (if you’re wondering, that is not a euphemism—Joe Smith exists, and in 2017 he was an effective reliever!).
Pannone’s time in Toronto last year was short, beginning in August and consisting of twelve outings—half in relief. So far this season, Pannone has primarily served as a reliever, but with Clayton Richard sidelined a while longer with his knee injury and Matt Shoemaker sidelined the remainder of the year with his knee injury, Pannone makes the start tonight.
Drafted in 2013 out of the College of Southern Nevada (a JuCo in Las Vegas), the Rhode Island native has consistently achieved fairly strong results in the minors, and while his performance so far this year has left something to be desired (he has a 5.40 ERA over 16 2/3 innings), his “worst” outing was a stunted start against his former employer early in April in which Cleveland posted a .714 BABIP against Pannone despite not hitting a single home run.
Pannone will likely never be a Cy Young candidate, but he might stick around, and this year in particular, he may be just the guy the Blue Jays need to gobble up some innings.
Pick: Texas to win -125. Low confidence.
