Editor’s Note: Joe downplays how good this is, but over a sample size of 246 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have a positive average return on investment when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
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Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Miami @ Washington
Marlins starter Sandy Alcántara tossed a complete-game shutout in his last outing, a 3-0 victory over the Mets. With eight strikeouts, one walk, and only two hits allowed, it was far and away the best start of the skinny 23-year-old’s career, which is only fifteen starts old (Alcántara did make eight appearances for the Cardinals down the stretch in 2017). In an unusual circumstance, though, it was only the seventh time Alcántara has struck out more batters than he’s walked in a start, and only the fourth such outing in nine starts this year.
Alcántara, as reason would have it, makes things happen by inducing soft contact. His opponents’ average exit velocity is the fourth-lowest among pitchers with 100 or more balls in play against them this season, a group that includes a far-from-insignificant 137 hurlers.
That isn’t to say Alcántara is a great pitcher, or a bona fide Rookie of the Year candidate (yes, his rookie status is intact). He’s been solid so far, with a 4.25 ERA that, with his 4.62 FIP and the aforementioned batted ball data, looks unlikely to regress much, and nearly six innings per start. It’s just that those walks (over four per nine innings, among the ten worst qualified starters) hurt.
Pick: Washington to win -240. Medium confidence.
Arizona @ San Francisco
It’s Memorial Day Weekend, and by fWAR, the Giants’ best player has been…
*drum roll*
Pablo Sandoval.
The man is on a tear, posting a 156 wRC+ thus far, hitting over .300, and striking out more than he ever has.
Always roughly a 13% strikeout guy from his rookie year through 2015, Sandoval returned from injury in 2017 whiffing on 20% of plate appearances, a number that held steady last year. This year, it’s up to 26%, but if the approach is what’s changing, it’s helping. His OPS is near 1.000, and while the .348 ISO attached to it (ISO is the gap between slugging percentage and batting average, making it a crude but quick and meaningful evaluation of a player’s power) is likely to regress, as is the .350 BABIP, Sandoval figures to finish the season—provided he stays healthy—as an above-average hitter.
As with the proverbial tree falling in the forest, few will notice Sandoval’s numbers on this year’s lowly Giants, unless he suddenly becomes a trade target (stranger things have happened). But it’s a redemptive season for a guy who spent the last four years grasping to keep his career alive.
Pick: Over 8 -109. Low confidence.
Detroit @ New York (NL)
The Tigers have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball this year (thanks, Marlins). Of their nine players with 100 or more plate appearances, only three have a WRC+ better than the MLB average, and all three of those aren’t by much.
Ronny Rodriguez (109 wRC+) has been sensational compared to his teammates and his expected performance, already eclipsing his projected WAR total while providing some pop from the middle infield. His BABIP is .301, almost exactly average, and given he’s now at 121 plate appearances, the sudden outburst of offense is looking more legitimate by the day.
Nicholas Castellanos (101 wRC+) is having a slightly down year, especially in the power department, where his .176 ISO is his lowest since 2015. He has only four home runs to date after hitting 26 and 23 in the last two years, respectively.
And then there’s Miguel Cabrera (109 wRC+). Remember him? He’s healthy again, and while his .389 BABIP will almost definitely regress, he’s always had a high one (over his career it’s .345). He isn’t the hitter he was over the first fourteen years of his career, but at least he isn’t Albert Pujols yet.
Pick: Over 9 -120. Low confidence.
Los Angeles (NL) @ Pittsburgh
Joe Musgrove, a favorite of these blurbs, is on the mound again tonight, and if his two starts on the Pirates’ West Coast swing are any indication, he’s back to form following two straight bad outings at the beginning of May.
His tied-for-lowest-among-qualified-starters HR/FB ratio is still puzzling, and will almost certainly increase, but for now, the 26-year-old is looking good, and helping give the Pirates some hope for the next few years.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +165. Low confidence.
