Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,424 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
New York (NL) @ Tampa Bay
The Mets are opening with Drew Smith today, and he should be fine—fairly standard middle reliever expectations. It’s not clear if Joey Lucchesi will pitch as the bulk reliever, as the Mets are referring to this as a bullpen game, but either way, the Mets will spend the majority of the game pitching out of the ‘pen.
That’s not a bad thing. The Mets have a pretty good bullpen, both on paper and in practice. Lucchesi has some rough numbers, but a lot of those (which are over a small sample) look like bad luck. Against Shane McClanahan, who has great results over a tiny sample, they’re set up well. They shouldn’t be favored (McClanahan might be great, the small sample might be right, etc.), and they’re not, but this line offers opportunity.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +135. Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Anthony Kay will not have a .429 BABIP and a 46.5% LOB rate forever, and he’s thrown shy of 45 MLB innings, so don’t get thinking too hard about the 6.45 career ERA, especially with the 4.37 career FIP alongside it. Might he do badly? Yes. But the expectations are out of whack here.
Pick: Toronto to win +125. Low confidence.
