Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 230 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Milwaukee @ Chicago (NL)
Zach Davies has, by bWAR, been the 12th-most valuable pitcher in the major leagues so far this season. His ERA is a tight 1.56, he’s lasting nearly six innings per start, and—for what it’s worth—he’s 4-0.
fWAR, though, disagrees on his value. Because it’s FIP-based, it has him pegged as only about 40% as valuable as ERA-based bWAR.
This is still valuable—while his fWAR (0.6) isn’t as strong as his bWAR (1.6), it’s quite a bit this early in the season for a pitcher not expected to man the top of the Brewers’ rotation. And on a team for which starting pitching was expected to be an Achilles’ heel, it’s more significant than it would be on, say, the Astros.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -140. Low confidence.
Detroit @ Minnesota – Game 2
Gregory Soto is reportedly starting Game 2 of tonight’s double header for the Tigers.
Soto is not exactly a top prospect. He arrives in Minneapolis fresh from the AA Eastern League, where he’s made three starts this year for the Erie Seawolves after returning from a 20-game suspension of vague origins. Before this year, he hadn’t pitched above high A ball.
Yet here he is, and while the Tigers likely aren’t expecting much from the 24-year-old lefty, five innings is within the range of possibilities, with five competitive innings likely his ceiling. If he does, indeed, last that long, it’ll be a godsend for a Detroit team struggling to stay healthy.
Pick: Detroit to win +170. Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Jeff Samardzija is 34 years old, and after missing a good chunk of 2018 with pectoral and shoulder injuries, he’s contributing positively again for the Giants.
His ERA is a striking 3.16, but that’s likely to regress towards his FIP of 4.47, given his 81.7% LOB% and his opponents’ .225 BABIP against him. Still, his BB’s/9 IP are down to 2.43 after a brutal 5.24 last year, his worst as a starting pitcher.
He isn’t picking up as many innings per start as he did prior to 2018, but at the very least, Jeff Samardzija is once again serviceable.
Pick: San Francisco to win +120. Low confidence.
