Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,915 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 120–83–1 and we’re down 1.16 units. We’ve mostly been betting moneyline favorites the last couple months, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per day.
Marquette @ Xavier
It hasn’t appeared to us that Xavier’s quitting on this season, and on Senior Night, we think the Cintas Center gets loud. Marquette is so much worse without Tyler Kolek, which is something we all know but seems to be being forgotten.
Pick: Xavier +3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
North Carolina @ Duke
We don’t instinctively trust Duke, and we think UNC shows up more for bigger games, but we’d guess those impressions aren’t uncommon through the market. Duke’s the better team, playing at home, with a lot to play for.
Pick: Duke –5 (–115). Low confidence.
SoCon Tournament
I don’t know if the odds in the SoCon are due to some impression of a home court advantage that doesn’t exist, if it’s that Samford’s final-week swoon is being written off by the markets, or if this has to do with the infatuation some people have with Furman basketball. Whatever the case, our model likes an inordinate number of teams in the SoCon, and we’re going to try taking all of them, fading today’s favorites. Hopefully we can get WCU and one more into the semis.
Pick: Western Carolina to win +475. Low confidence.
Pick: Wofford to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: East Tennessee State to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Mercer to win +4500. Low confidence.
Big South Tournament
With these last two, we were torn between chasing 6–8% eROI, adding more Final Four futures, or putting two units down on App State at 1% eROI. We think the App State value might still be there tomorrow, and we’re sure the Final Four value will be there, possibly in greater form if the market’s slow to react to today’s results. So, we’re trusting our model and building an even bigger position on conference tournament longshots. It’s a numbers game, and even if we crap out, our bubble futures have us in a good position to weather that potential storm.
Pick: Longwood to win +800. Low confidence.
America East Playoffs
Go Wildcats. At least they’re at home today.
Pick: New Hampshire to win +3500. Low confidence.
