Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,049 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. So…dead even. All of that, for dead even.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
A few more conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Longwood vs. USC Upstate
USC Upstate had some awful cold streaks yesterday, Longwood played an overtime game, it’s an early start…
All reasons the under can get overvalued. Look for points. Not a ton, but enough.
Pick: Over 141 (-110). Medium confidence.
Georgia State vs. Arkansas State
The assumption with the Sun Belt seems to be that Georgia State’s figured it out and will continue to figure it out. The problem with that assumption is that they’ve won seven straight and the numbers still don’t suggest they should be favored by more than a point or two against Arkansas State.
Pick: Arkansas State +4 (-110). Medium confidence.
South Dakota State vs. Nebraska-Omaha
South Dakota State should be free to run, UNO likes to run themselves, things should get wonderfully out of hand.
Pick: Over 160 (-108). Medium confidence.
Now, futures:
Sun Belt Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
We’re adding two within the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette benefits from the development where South Alabama lost (if they can get past Texas State, they’re suddenly in phenomenal shape). Georgia Southern benefits from what we’re perceiving as overvaluation of Georgia State.
Louisiana-Lafayette to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Georgia Southern to win +3000. Low confidence.
Southern Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Chattanooga caught a break with The Citadel winning, and the market doesn’t seem to have reacted. With few high seeds in our portfolios, we’re thrilled to add them. Elsewhere, UNCG is just a little undervalued. Nothing massive, but good value.
Chattanooga to win +200. Medium confidence.
Chattanooga to win +200. Medium confidence.
Chattanooga to win +200. Medium confidence.
North Carolina-Greensboro to win +1500. Low confidence.
Summit League Men’s Basketball Tournament
A thing about the Summit League is that if you’re across the bracket from South Dakota State, you get to hope on two teams to knock them off before you have to deal with them.
Western Illinois to win +2800. Low confidence.
Denver to win +20000. Low confidence.
Colonial Athletic Association Men’s Basketball Tournament
Towson can be beaten. It’s not amazingly likely, but it’s a possibility, and Drexel or Delaware will most likely get a shot when this thing gets to the semifinals.
Drexel to win +1000. Low confidence.
Delaware to win +1200. Low confidence.
