Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,710 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new college basketball futures today. Letting what we have outstanding (SEMO, Santa Clara, BYU) ride, and not seeing great new value elsewhere.
Kansas @ Texas
This doesn’t affect the Big 12 title, but it is expected to impact Kansas’s push for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and possibly a top-two seed overall. So, if motivation is the question, Kansas has got it, and while we expect Texas to show up, the Jayhawks have the composure advantage. Even on the road.
Pick: Kansas +3.5 (-112). Low confidence.
LSU @ Florida
Florida’s been without Colin Castleton for three games now, and we’re starting to get an idea of who they are now. What is that idea? It’s that they’re a fine, mediocre, SEC team. One that shouldn’t have much trouble against LSU on Senior Day.
Pick: Florida -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
