Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,073 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: College basketball futures and a Major League Baseball moneyline. We’re retreating from single-game college basketball picks, at least for today, after going 1–7 on the Sweet Sixteen. White flag time.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week (lost about five percent of the portfolio), but we’ve rallied. We were projecting a 3% total profit before today’s futures were placed.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 2–0 so far, up 1.22 units.
NCAA Tournament
We’re adding twelve units today. Duke has a great path because they get to play NC State. Clemson and Alabama have a better path than one would think, because if UConn does win, they’ll probably be a little overvalued by ratings systems due to the home-crowd advantage they’ve been enjoying, one which will re-neutralize in Phoenix. It’s not a big thing, but UConn is not inevitable. They are merely really, really good.
We don’t have enough space to hedge yet, so we’re letting Illinois ride tonight. If they beat UConn, it will have been a great season for this portfolio. If UConn wins, we’re far from sunk, but we’ll be in an uncomfortable position.
Pick: Duke to win tournament +900. Low confidence. x8
Pick: Clemson to win tournament +4000. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to make championship +550. Low confidence. x3
Washington @ Cincinnati
I was surprised to see this flash positive value, because FanGraphs is a little lower on the Reds in the futures world than the markets are. What I think’s happening is that Hunter Greene is expected by the FanGraphs models to take a slight step forward this year, and maybe markets are skeptical of him? We’ll ride with Cincinnati as we try to get to 3–0.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –176. Low confidence. (Corbin and Greene must start.)
